$BTC A lot of people are making a big deal about the U.S. government moving BTC to Coinbase, saying it’s about to dump. It cracks me up. If you believe that, then you must also believe MicroStrategy is selling Bitcoin on May 8—and sell along with them.
Come on, the U.S. government holds 324,000 BTC. This time, it moved just 0.27% of that.
How does the price move after the U.S. government transfers BTC? I reviewed nine major auctions or transfers since 2014:
• No short-term pattern: 30 days later, prices were sometimes up and sometimes down, ranging from -15% to +39%.
• No consistency at 90 days either: the transfer in August 2024 was followed by +60%, while the one in January 2025 was followed by -15%.
• By the next cycle peak, prices had almost always risen sharply—but that’s because these events mostly happened between bear-market bottoms and the middle of bull markets, not because of the transfers themselves.
Also, transferring BTC to Coinbase Prime doesn’t mean it’s being sold; Coinbase Prime is also a custodian for the U.S. Marshals Service. The government has not confirmed any sales related to the transfers in July and October 2026.
Figures are approximate, based on publicly available prices. This is a historical review, not investment advice.
Come on, the U.S. government holds 324,000 BTC. This time, it moved just 0.27% of that.
How does the price move after the U.S. government transfers BTC? I reviewed nine major auctions or transfers since 2014:
• No short-term pattern: 30 days later, prices were sometimes up and sometimes down, ranging from -15% to +39%.
• No consistency at 90 days either: the transfer in August 2024 was followed by +60%, while the one in January 2025 was followed by -15%.
• By the next cycle peak, prices had almost always risen sharply—but that’s because these events mostly happened between bear-market bottoms and the middle of bull markets, not because of the transfers themselves.
Also, transferring BTC to Coinbase Prime doesn’t mean it’s being sold; Coinbase Prime is also a custodian for the U.S. Marshals Service. The government has not confirmed any sales related to the transfers in July and October 2026.
Figures are approximate, based on publicly available prices. This is a historical review, not investment advice.
