Fed September Meeting Minutes: Most Officials Support Another Rate Hike Before Year-End; Labor Market Risks Have Eased
October 8 — According to the minutes of the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meeting held on September 15–16, released by the Federal Reserve, most policymakers favored another rate hike before the end of the year.
Officials also said they would remain open-minded at every meeting, with the policy outlook depending entirely on economic data, its implications for the outlook, and the balance of risks.
At the meeting, the Committee voted unanimously, 12–0, to raise the target range for the federal funds rate by 25 basis points to 3.75%–4.00%, marking the first rate hike since July 2023.
The minutes showed that nearly all participants assessed inflation risks as tilted to the upside, while labor market risks had eased and moved toward being broadly balanced.
Moreover, 16 of the 19 officials saw the possibility of at least one more 25-basis-point rate hike this year, while four expected two additional hikes. Chair Warsh again declined to submit his individual projections.
In its economic projections, the Committee raised its forecast for GDP growth in 2026 to 2.3% and for 2027 to 2.4%. It also raised its 2026 PCE inflation forecast to 3.7% and its core inflation forecast to 3.4%, while lowering its unemployment rate projections for 2026–2027 to 4.1%.
Overall, these hawkish Fed meeting minutes add to uncertainty in global financial markets. Higher interest rates mean tighter market liquidity, which could weigh on risk assets such as Bitcoin in the short term.
In addition, as AI infrastructure investment becomes a new driver of inflation, it is also putting the traditional monetary policy framework to the test. The Fed's ability to balance economic growth with inflation control will be key to determining the market's direction from here.
Finally, how many more times do you think the Fed will raise rates this year? What impact will the rate-hiking cycle have on Bitcoin's price? Share your thoughts in the comments!
#美联储9月会议纪要
October 8 — According to the minutes of the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meeting held on September 15–16, released by the Federal Reserve, most policymakers favored another rate hike before the end of the year.
Officials also said they would remain open-minded at every meeting, with the policy outlook depending entirely on economic data, its implications for the outlook, and the balance of risks.
At the meeting, the Committee voted unanimously, 12–0, to raise the target range for the federal funds rate by 25 basis points to 3.75%–4.00%, marking the first rate hike since July 2023.
The minutes showed that nearly all participants assessed inflation risks as tilted to the upside, while labor market risks had eased and moved toward being broadly balanced.
Moreover, 16 of the 19 officials saw the possibility of at least one more 25-basis-point rate hike this year, while four expected two additional hikes. Chair Warsh again declined to submit his individual projections.
In its economic projections, the Committee raised its forecast for GDP growth in 2026 to 2.3% and for 2027 to 2.4%. It also raised its 2026 PCE inflation forecast to 3.7% and its core inflation forecast to 3.4%, while lowering its unemployment rate projections for 2026–2027 to 4.1%.
Overall, these hawkish Fed meeting minutes add to uncertainty in global financial markets. Higher interest rates mean tighter market liquidity, which could weigh on risk assets such as Bitcoin in the short term.
In addition, as AI infrastructure investment becomes a new driver of inflation, it is also putting the traditional monetary policy framework to the test. The Fed's ability to balance economic growth with inflation control will be key to determining the market's direction from here.
Finally, how many more times do you think the Fed will raise rates this year? What impact will the rate-hiking cycle have on Bitcoin's price? Share your thoughts in the comments!
#美联储9月会议纪要