Have we hit the bottom?
Let’s take a look at the current trend.
Bitcoin has just broken below its MA21.
Based on this trend, we definitely haven’t hit the bottom yet.
I also said in advance this time around
that you should watch the 78K–81K range.
A big reason is that, in this bull market, many people thought we’d have another three months of bear market,
with the bottom not coming until at least late October or December, before the bull run began.
But what happened?
It started three months early,
and after a choppy stretch, it suddenly took off.
One piece of good news
was enough to shake up a lot of people who had been sitting on the fence.
It surged almost without a pullback, reaching a high of around 87K.
In past bull markets,
a major correction in a smaller cycle usually came after prices had doubled from the bottom,
and then we’d see a correction of over 30%.
This time, the rally will definitely be shorter.
My earlier estimate was at most around 60%,
since this time the decline itself was less than 60%.
So essentially, Bitcoin just has a higher per-coin price base now.
So, over the next few days—at least 3–5 days—
we’ll probably see a bit more of a rebound before another leg down,
then a drop of around 15% or so.
That should be roughly the range I mentioned.
Once it falls into that range and starts consolidating,
we’ll probably be near the bottom.
For now, we just wait.
Short with a small position on the rebound.
For example, I like trading UNI,
so if it bounces to around 8, I’ll mainly look to short UNI.
When Bitcoin reaches the range, that’s when it’ll start turning back up.
Keep an eye on the few assets I mentioned in my previous posts.
The bull market is still on.
Don’t panic.
If you’re holding positions, just wait!#BTC走势分析
Let’s take a look at the current trend.
Bitcoin has just broken below its MA21.
Based on this trend, we definitely haven’t hit the bottom yet.
I also said in advance this time around
that you should watch the 78K–81K range.
A big reason is that, in this bull market, many people thought we’d have another three months of bear market,
with the bottom not coming until at least late October or December, before the bull run began.
But what happened?
It started three months early,
and after a choppy stretch, it suddenly took off.
One piece of good news
was enough to shake up a lot of people who had been sitting on the fence.
It surged almost without a pullback, reaching a high of around 87K.
In past bull markets,
a major correction in a smaller cycle usually came after prices had doubled from the bottom,
and then we’d see a correction of over 30%.
This time, the rally will definitely be shorter.
My earlier estimate was at most around 60%,
since this time the decline itself was less than 60%.
So essentially, Bitcoin just has a higher per-coin price base now.
So, over the next few days—at least 3–5 days—
we’ll probably see a bit more of a rebound before another leg down,
then a drop of around 15% or so.
That should be roughly the range I mentioned.
Once it falls into that range and starts consolidating,
we’ll probably be near the bottom.
For now, we just wait.
Short with a small position on the rebound.
For example, I like trading UNI,
so if it bounces to around 8, I’ll mainly look to short UNI.
When Bitcoin reaches the range, that’s when it’ll start turning back up.
Keep an eye on the few assets I mentioned in my previous posts.
The bull market is still on.
Don’t panic.
If you’re holding positions, just wait!#BTC走势分析