The minutes were released and were hawkish, just as expected. The market is still broadly range-bound, so look to add longs on dips in the short term.
The minutes released early this morning stated:
Most participants thought that another increase in the target range before year-end “would likely be appropriate,”
but they did not commit to whether action would be necessary in October or December.
$BTC Maintain the short-term view of adding longs on dips in a choppy market.
There are three main reasons:
1. Leverage has already been flushed out once. Liquidations over the past 24 hours totaled around $550–600 million, the vast majority of them long positions. Funding rates have fallen noticeably, and long-position crowding has eased.
2. Technically, the price is still above the higher-timeframe moving average cluster. The area around 83000 marks the low after this round of leverage liquidations; it does not mean the trend has broken down.
3. The market is still pricing in an 80% chance that rates will be held steady at the October meeting. The key policy events are not until the end of the month and December, with no catalyst in between for an immediate further rate hike.
Key things to watch next:
A further escalation in the Strait of Hormuz situation, with oil prices and US Treasuries being key;
If BTC breaks below the low of 82700 on rising volume, long positions should be cautious about risk;
In the short term, consider opening a small long position near the lower end of the 83000 range.
The first resistance above remains at 85000, followed by the area around 87,000 where price was rejected several times before.#FOMC会议 #BTC走势分析
The minutes released early this morning stated:
Most participants thought that another increase in the target range before year-end “would likely be appropriate,”
but they did not commit to whether action would be necessary in October or December.
$BTC Maintain the short-term view of adding longs on dips in a choppy market.
There are three main reasons:
1. Leverage has already been flushed out once. Liquidations over the past 24 hours totaled around $550–600 million, the vast majority of them long positions. Funding rates have fallen noticeably, and long-position crowding has eased.
2. Technically, the price is still above the higher-timeframe moving average cluster. The area around 83000 marks the low after this round of leverage liquidations; it does not mean the trend has broken down.
3. The market is still pricing in an 80% chance that rates will be held steady at the October meeting. The key policy events are not until the end of the month and December, with no catalyst in between for an immediate further rate hike.
Key things to watch next:
A further escalation in the Strait of Hormuz situation, with oil prices and US Treasuries being key;
If BTC breaks below the low of 82700 on rising volume, long positions should be cautious about risk;
In the short term, consider opening a small long position near the lower end of the 83000 range.
The first resistance above remains at 85000, followed by the area around 87,000 where price was rejected several times before.#FOMC会议 #BTC走势分析