#fedminutesfocusonoctoberpause
🚨 The Fed just revealed a major split over its next move.
The Federal Reserve released the minutes from its September meeting today, and the message is more complicated than a simple “hawkish Fed.”
The Fed unanimously raised rates by 25 basis points in September, taking the federal funds rate to 3.75%–4.00%.
But here is the key detail:
16 of 18 Fed officials projected at least one more rate hike before the end of 2026.
That means the Fed has NOT abandoned its tightening bias.
Officials remain concerned about inflation. August PCE inflation was estimated at 3.8%, while core PCE stood at 3.4%, both well above the Fed’s 2% target.
The minutes also highlighted a new inflation risk: the massive AI investment boom.
Fed officials noted that AI-related investment, data centers, technology spending and borrowing could push demand higher and add to inflationary pressure.
So why is the market expecting an October pause?
Because the September meeting happened before some of the latest economic data, and traders are now seeing less urgency for an immediate second consecutive hike.
The market-implied probability of an October rate hike has fallen to roughly 17–19%, meaning an October pause is now the dominant expectation.
The next FOMC meeting takes place on October 27–28.
This creates a very important situation for risk assets:
Fed officials → still leaning toward another hike.
Markets → increasingly pricing an October pause.
$BTC and stocks → highly sensitive to which side wins this debate.
The October inflation and employment data could decide whether the Fed pauses now and hikes later.
#BTC #Fed #crypto #Markets
🚨 The Fed just revealed a major split over its next move.
The Federal Reserve released the minutes from its September meeting today, and the message is more complicated than a simple “hawkish Fed.”
The Fed unanimously raised rates by 25 basis points in September, taking the federal funds rate to 3.75%–4.00%.
But here is the key detail:
16 of 18 Fed officials projected at least one more rate hike before the end of 2026.
That means the Fed has NOT abandoned its tightening bias.
Officials remain concerned about inflation. August PCE inflation was estimated at 3.8%, while core PCE stood at 3.4%, both well above the Fed’s 2% target.
The minutes also highlighted a new inflation risk: the massive AI investment boom.
Fed officials noted that AI-related investment, data centers, technology spending and borrowing could push demand higher and add to inflationary pressure.
So why is the market expecting an October pause?
Because the September meeting happened before some of the latest economic data, and traders are now seeing less urgency for an immediate second consecutive hike.
The market-implied probability of an October rate hike has fallen to roughly 17–19%, meaning an October pause is now the dominant expectation.
The next FOMC meeting takes place on October 27–28.
This creates a very important situation for risk assets:
Fed officials → still leaning toward another hike.
Markets → increasingly pricing an October pause.
$BTC and stocks → highly sensitive to which side wins this debate.
The October inflation and employment data could decide whether the Fed pauses now and hikes later.
#BTC #Fed #crypto #Markets