The Fed didn’t drop a bomb last night, but it did leave a sting 🦅
The FOMC minutes are out
The key question isn’t whether the Fed will hike again right away, but that:
Most officials still believe another rate hike before the end of this year may be appropriate
And a few officials think rates may not even be “restrictive enough” right now
The Fed’s concerns about inflation haven’t gone away
Energy prices, demand driven by AI investment, and other supply shocks could all make inflation more persistent
The market hasn’t fully embraced the Fed’s hawkish outlook
Right now, the market is pricing in only a small chance of another hike in October—around 19%. It’s leaning more toward the Fed holding steady in October and waiting for more data
Fed: We may need another hike by year-end
Market: Let’s wait and see what the data says
For BTC / ETH, keep an eye on pressure from the dollar and Treasury yields in the short term
But if inflation data continues to cool and the Fed takes no further tightening measures, any easing in expectations for a “year-end rate hike” could create fresh room for risk assets to rise
So I wouldn’t turn bearish just because of talk of a possible rate hike
What really drives the market has never been what the Fed says, but whether the market believes it
#BTC #ETH #fomc
The FOMC minutes are out
The key question isn’t whether the Fed will hike again right away, but that:
Most officials still believe another rate hike before the end of this year may be appropriate
And a few officials think rates may not even be “restrictive enough” right now
The Fed’s concerns about inflation haven’t gone away
Energy prices, demand driven by AI investment, and other supply shocks could all make inflation more persistent
The market hasn’t fully embraced the Fed’s hawkish outlook
Right now, the market is pricing in only a small chance of another hike in October—around 19%. It’s leaning more toward the Fed holding steady in October and waiting for more data
Fed: We may need another hike by year-end
Market: Let’s wait and see what the data says
For BTC / ETH, keep an eye on pressure from the dollar and Treasury yields in the short term
But if inflation data continues to cool and the Fed takes no further tightening measures, any easing in expectations for a “year-end rate hike” could create fresh room for risk assets to rise
So I wouldn’t turn bearish just because of talk of a possible rate hike
What really drives the market has never been what the Fed says, but whether the market believes it
#BTC #ETH #fomc