The coin is up 40%, but shorts have been the most aggressive opening positions this time around.
$MET has climbed from 0.3193 at 11 p.m. last night to 0.4473 now, up 40%. Over the same period, open interest in perpetual contracts rose from 19.16 million tokens to 30.8 million, an increase of 60%. When both price and open interest rise, it usually means longs are entering. But two other figures tell a different story: the share of retail accounts going long fell from 58.1% to 48.7%, and the large-trader long/short ratio dropped from 1.38 to 1.13.
The funding rate says the most. At the 4 a.m. settlement this morning, it was -0.51%—meaning shorts had to pay longs 0.51% every four hours just to hold their positions. I checked the 500 settlements since July 17. The previous low was -0.05% on August 20, so this time it was 10 times more negative.
The logic is simple: as the price rises, some traders keep adding to their shorts. Those short positions pile up, and they’re expensive to hold. As long as the price doesn’t fall back, sooner or later those traders will have to buy back their positions to close them. The rate returned to -0.078% at the 8 a.m. settlement, so some of the most intense crowding has eased, but 30 million tokens in open interest are still in the market.
I wouldn’t chase it in the short term. The 4-hour RSI is at 83.2, the KDJ J-value is 93.1, and the price is still above the 4-hour Bollinger upper band at 0.4285. A pullback would be perfectly normal. 0.4129, the high of the long upper wick on September 23, is the first support level. Above, 0.4744 is this morning’s 5 a.m. high, and also the highest price since November 18 last year.
My plan is neither to open a short nor to chase it at 0.447. If it pulls back to 0.413–0.428 and holds steady, I’ll try a small position. What I’m really waiting for is a high-volume break above 0.4744, where a cluster of short stop-losses is sitting. If the 4-hour candle closes back below 0.4129, that means the shorts got this one right, and I’ll stop watching it.
Personal opinion only
#MET #合约 #Funding Rate
$MET has climbed from 0.3193 at 11 p.m. last night to 0.4473 now, up 40%. Over the same period, open interest in perpetual contracts rose from 19.16 million tokens to 30.8 million, an increase of 60%. When both price and open interest rise, it usually means longs are entering. But two other figures tell a different story: the share of retail accounts going long fell from 58.1% to 48.7%, and the large-trader long/short ratio dropped from 1.38 to 1.13.
The funding rate says the most. At the 4 a.m. settlement this morning, it was -0.51%—meaning shorts had to pay longs 0.51% every four hours just to hold their positions. I checked the 500 settlements since July 17. The previous low was -0.05% on August 20, so this time it was 10 times more negative.
The logic is simple: as the price rises, some traders keep adding to their shorts. Those short positions pile up, and they’re expensive to hold. As long as the price doesn’t fall back, sooner or later those traders will have to buy back their positions to close them. The rate returned to -0.078% at the 8 a.m. settlement, so some of the most intense crowding has eased, but 30 million tokens in open interest are still in the market.
I wouldn’t chase it in the short term. The 4-hour RSI is at 83.2, the KDJ J-value is 93.1, and the price is still above the 4-hour Bollinger upper band at 0.4285. A pullback would be perfectly normal. 0.4129, the high of the long upper wick on September 23, is the first support level. Above, 0.4744 is this morning’s 5 a.m. high, and also the highest price since November 18 last year.
My plan is neither to open a short nor to chase it at 0.447. If it pulls back to 0.413–0.428 and holds steady, I’ll try a small position. What I’m really waiting for is a high-volume break above 0.4744, where a cluster of short stop-losses is sitting. If the 4-hour candle closes back below 0.4129, that means the shorts got this one right, and I’ll stop watching it.
Personal opinion only
#MET #合约 #Funding Rate
