$BTC The rebound has no follow-through; if 83650 holds as resistance, the price will keep sliding
Guys, don’t be fooled by this little bounce. The four-hour candle closed at 83322, down 0.14%. That may not look like much, but the key point is that the rebound has no real momentum.
Volume in the last two hours of the most recent four-hour period was 35.61% higher than in the first two hours. Volume picked up, but what did the price do? It bounced from 83125 to 83415 and then ran out of steam. The latest 15-minute candle closed at 83321, with a high of 83340—it didn’t even reach the previous high. Rising volume without a price gain isn’t buying support; it’s someone selling into the rally.
Look at the bigger picture: BTC had already fallen below 83000 and hit a new low for the month. Stocks reversed from their highs, bond yields surged, and risk assets across the board came under pressure. Prices later edged up from their lows, but that brief relief came from yields pulling back—not from Bitcoin showing any real strength.
My view is straightforward: bearish in the short term.
83350 is the current line between bulls and bears. If the price can’t get above it, expect weak, choppy trading. 83650 is solid resistance overhead. If the price gets near that level and is held down, that’s an opportunity for bears. First, watch 83100 below. If that level breaks, 83000 probably won’t hold.
Of course, nothing is set in stone. If the four-hour chart gets back above 83650 and holds, I’ll admit I was wrong and withdraw my short-term bearish view. Until then, a rebound is just a rebound—not a reversal.
Don’t chase longs or buy the dip. Wait for the price to show its hand.
Guys, don’t be fooled by this little bounce. The four-hour candle closed at 83322, down 0.14%. That may not look like much, but the key point is that the rebound has no real momentum.
Volume in the last two hours of the most recent four-hour period was 35.61% higher than in the first two hours. Volume picked up, but what did the price do? It bounced from 83125 to 83415 and then ran out of steam. The latest 15-minute candle closed at 83321, with a high of 83340—it didn’t even reach the previous high. Rising volume without a price gain isn’t buying support; it’s someone selling into the rally.
Look at the bigger picture: BTC had already fallen below 83000 and hit a new low for the month. Stocks reversed from their highs, bond yields surged, and risk assets across the board came under pressure. Prices later edged up from their lows, but that brief relief came from yields pulling back—not from Bitcoin showing any real strength.
My view is straightforward: bearish in the short term.
83350 is the current line between bulls and bears. If the price can’t get above it, expect weak, choppy trading. 83650 is solid resistance overhead. If the price gets near that level and is held down, that’s an opportunity for bears. First, watch 83100 below. If that level breaks, 83000 probably won’t hold.
Of course, nothing is set in stone. If the four-hour chart gets back above 83650 and holds, I’ll admit I was wrong and withdraw my short-term bearish view. Until then, a rebound is just a rebound—not a reversal.
Don’t chase longs or buy the dip. Wait for the price to show its hand.