📊 A document the Venezuelan economy has been waiting for for a decade

In the coming days, the contents of a report prepared by Centerview Partners are expected to become public. The report lays out the broad outlines of what could be Venezuela’s external debt restructuring program. This is no minor announcement: according to economist Alejandro Grisanti, the document would include fiscal, debt, and real-sector figures, some of which have not been published fully and consistently for more than ten years.

For the local market, the significance goes beyond the bare figures. For years, any attempt at serious analysis of the Venezuelan economy ran into a wall: there were no official numbers. Now, at least, there would be a starting point.

📈 How much is really owed? The figure is around US$238 billion

The estimates used by the technical team point to liabilities of nearly US$238 billion. That figure is very close to the US$240 billion reported by the British newspaper Financial Times last July, lending some consistency to independent estimates.

However, not all of that amount is owed to external creditors. Grisanti explains that around US$40 billion consists of obligations between entities within the public sector itself: intergovernmental commitments or debts between state institutions. This detail is key, because it would completely change how we interpret the final figure negotiated with bondholders.

🔎 The breakdown matters more than the headline

Publishing the total amount is only the first step. What will really matter is the breakdown: what portion is owed to private bondholders, how much to multilateral institutions, how much to China, Russia, or historic allies, and how much is domestic debt. Without that map, any debt sustainability calculation is up in the air.

💰 Debt-to-GDP: the math that could work in Venezuela’s favor

Grisanti outlines an interesting scenario: if economic recovery causes nominal GDP measured in dollars to grow much faster than the interest accumulating on the liabilities, the denominator in the debt-to-GDP ratio would expand faster than the numerator, and the ratio would begin to fall even if much of the status quo remained in place.

That would not eliminate the need for a deep restructuring, but it would change the country’s future ability to pay and the relief required—and, above all, reduce the urgency to rush into a deal. In plain language: there would be more time to negotiate and less pressure to accept any haircut.

🛡️ The IMF: the missing piece of the puzzle

The economist stresses a fundamental point: the International Monetary Fund needs to play a more active technical role, something that has yet to happen. Without that multilateral institutional backing, any credible macroeconomic program is incomplete, and creditors are unlikely to come to the table without technical endorsement of the projections.

Validating the data, building a credible macroeconomic program, and securing multilateral backing: that is the sequence the market is watching closely.

⚠️ What does all this have to do with USDT and Venezuela’s P2P market?

Much more than it might seem. The USDT/VES P2P market acts as an almost real-time gauge of exchange-rate expectations. When news points to possible financial normalization—access to credit, the lifting of sanctions, or agreements with multilateral institutions—two movements often occur at the same time:

• Downward pressure on the USDT exchange rate: if the market anticipates more official dollars or greater liquidity, the parallel rate tends to fall.

• Higher trading volumes: traders adjust their positions, and P2P becomes the first place where the change in sentiment is reflected.

There is a third factor that is often overlooked: a potential restructuring process would sooner or later mean greater scrutiny of the country’s financial flows. That could lead to increased regulatory pressure on exchanges and P2P trading desks—or, in the opposite scenario, greater openness and the formalization of platforms.

🧭 The dollar and digital banking in focus

📖 Read the full article: https://pitbullchain.com/noticias/deuda-venezolana-us-238-000-millones-y-su-efecto-en-el-p2p-del-usdt-079122

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