Every major US bank crushed Q2 estimates. The market sold them anyway.
Q2 EPS beat vs. price return since:
$GS +45% beat → -14.2%
$MS +19.7% → -16.1%
$C +15.8% → -8.7%
$WFC +13.3% → -7.0%
$JPM +9.8% → -1.0%
$BAC +7.1% → -9.1%
Equal-weight average:
Report day: +1.0%
After: -10.0%
Total: -9.3%
So does the selloff actually predict anything for October earnings?
Tested $BAC, $JPM, $WFC back to 2010 — whether performance into the print matters for how they trade after:
• Since July vs. $SPY: p = 0.66
• Since July vs. XLF: p = 0.83
• Last 10 sessions: p = 0.95
No edge. The discount alone tells you nothing.
What does matter: how this October print ranks historically, what's driving it, and what the current setup implies. Subscribers see the full bank earnings breakdown first.
Q2 EPS beat vs. price return since:
$GS +45% beat → -14.2%
$MS +19.7% → -16.1%
$C +15.8% → -8.7%
$WFC +13.3% → -7.0%
$JPM +9.8% → -1.0%
$BAC +7.1% → -9.1%
Equal-weight average:
Report day: +1.0%
After: -10.0%
Total: -9.3%
So does the selloff actually predict anything for October earnings?
Tested $BAC, $JPM, $WFC back to 2010 — whether performance into the print matters for how they trade after:
• Since July vs. $SPY: p = 0.66
• Since July vs. XLF: p = 0.83
• Last 10 sessions: p = 0.95
No edge. The discount alone tells you nothing.
What does matter: how this October print ranks historically, what's driving it, and what the current setup implies. Subscribers see the full bank earnings breakdown first.