The Fed minutes published on October 7 at 18:00 UTC confirm a hawkish bias: most FOMC members believe another rate hike would be “probably appropriate by the end of the year.” Reaction from $BTC on Binance: up to +0.4% in the first 15 minutes, then back toward $83,400.
The chart tells the story of the day. Rejection below $86,700 on October 6, a long-position flush around 02:00 UTC, the day's low of $82,787 around 13:45 UTC, and a move after the minutes that changed almost nothing.
Why so little movement? Because the text says what the markets had already priced in. On September 16, the FOMC raised its target range by 25 bps to 3.75–4.00%, in a unanimous 12–0 vote. According to FedWatch (CME), the market sees just a 22% chance of a hike on October 28, but about an 88% chance of at least one hike by December 9. The minutes confirm this timeline; they don't bring it forward.
Two passages in the minutes are still worth noting. Several participants consider the current rate “not restrictive or only slightly restrictive,” so they're in no rush to stop. And the Fed cites the heavy issuance of private debt to fund AI infrastructure as one of the drivers of higher term premiums. The US 30-year yield touched 5.70% today, its highest level since 2002 (Decrypt).
My take: no shock, but no relief either. The real test is the US CPI release on October 14.
- If BTC regains $84,000 (the pivot cited by Bitfinex) before the CPI release, the $84,000–$86,500 range becomes the base case again.
- If $82,787 gives way, the next level to watch is $81,300, the macro pivot from the same report.
With yields at this level, are you keeping your $BTC exposure until the CPI release, or waiting for the data before repositioning?
#FOMC #Fed
The chart tells the story of the day. Rejection below $86,700 on October 6, a long-position flush around 02:00 UTC, the day's low of $82,787 around 13:45 UTC, and a move after the minutes that changed almost nothing.
Why so little movement? Because the text says what the markets had already priced in. On September 16, the FOMC raised its target range by 25 bps to 3.75–4.00%, in a unanimous 12–0 vote. According to FedWatch (CME), the market sees just a 22% chance of a hike on October 28, but about an 88% chance of at least one hike by December 9. The minutes confirm this timeline; they don't bring it forward.
Two passages in the minutes are still worth noting. Several participants consider the current rate “not restrictive or only slightly restrictive,” so they're in no rush to stop. And the Fed cites the heavy issuance of private debt to fund AI infrastructure as one of the drivers of higher term premiums. The US 30-year yield touched 5.70% today, its highest level since 2002 (Decrypt).
My take: no shock, but no relief either. The real test is the US CPI release on October 14.
- If BTC regains $84,000 (the pivot cited by Bitfinex) before the CPI release, the $84,000–$86,500 range becomes the base case again.
- If $82,787 gives way, the next level to watch is $81,300, the macro pivot from the same report.
With yields at this level, are you keeping your $BTC exposure until the CPI release, or waiting for the data before repositioning?
#FOMC #Fed