📰 Why are miners suddenly panicking? Can a lull in the war really stabilize crypto?
Expert Bessent says that if the Iran conflict ends, global oil prices, mortgage rates, and bond yields could all come down. That would be good news for the stock market, but the crypto market has taken a beating recently, and investors are waiting for this news, unsure whether prices will rebound or keep falling.
Why does this news matter?
Simply put, war drives up oil prices and puts pressure on the economy, and crypto falls along with it. Bessent's remarks essentially suggest that if the war ends, economic pressure will ease. But this applies to the broader market. Crypto has its own cycles and doesn't necessarily move in lockstep with the wider market.
As for the impact on the industry cycle, the market is currently in a downturn dominated by risk aversion. Central banks around the world have recently been raising interest rates, and regulatory pressure is adding to the strain, so capital is fleeing. If the Iran conflict really does ease, that should theoretically benefit risk assets, including crypto. But the effects won't be direct—capital may flow first into bonds and stocks, and it's still unclear whether crypto will get a turn once risk sentiment has settled.
As for how this relates to recent events, the latest U.S. inflation data has barely been digested, and now the Middle East conflict has added another variable. Markets are much more sensitive to bad news than good news, so this news is more of a psychological placebo.
Market impact
The impact on BTC/ETH prices may be a short-term improvement in sentiment, but mid-term pressure remains. BTC is currently at $83,177.3 and ETH at $2,552.2. Both have fallen for two days, suggesting that the market has already priced in the bad news. If the Iran conflict ends, some capital may buy the dip in the short term, but how much prices can rise will depend on the upcoming macroeconomic data. For example, if U.S. CPI remains high, the Federal Reserve may still have to raise rates, which would weaken the momentum behind a crypto rally.
In terms of the market landscape, this news has a greater impact on the U.S. dollar. If the dollar weakens due to falling oil prices, crypto could perform better, but this isn't a sure thing. As for the regulatory environment, regulations are tightening globally, and peace in the Middle East is unlikely to have much direct effect on regulatory easing.
A similar historical example is the COVID-19 pandemic in 2020. After the market plunged, global stocks and crypto both rebounded, but the size and pace of those rebounds varied. The situation today is more complex because interest rate hikes and regulatory pressure were not factors back then.
Trading approach
💡 I think this news could have a positive marginal effect on crypto. If the conflict really ends and inflation data also improves, BTC could stabilize around $85K. But this outlook would be invalidated if the Federal Reserve suddenly announced a 75-basis-point rate hike or a larger-scale hack occurred.
This article is not sponsored by any project, and the author does not hold any of the assets mentioned
$BTC $ETH #BTC #ETH
⚠️ This is not investment advice. Predictions are for reference only.
#GeneralAnalysis
Expert Bessent says that if the Iran conflict ends, global oil prices, mortgage rates, and bond yields could all come down. That would be good news for the stock market, but the crypto market has taken a beating recently, and investors are waiting for this news, unsure whether prices will rebound or keep falling.
Why does this news matter?
Simply put, war drives up oil prices and puts pressure on the economy, and crypto falls along with it. Bessent's remarks essentially suggest that if the war ends, economic pressure will ease. But this applies to the broader market. Crypto has its own cycles and doesn't necessarily move in lockstep with the wider market.
As for the impact on the industry cycle, the market is currently in a downturn dominated by risk aversion. Central banks around the world have recently been raising interest rates, and regulatory pressure is adding to the strain, so capital is fleeing. If the Iran conflict really does ease, that should theoretically benefit risk assets, including crypto. But the effects won't be direct—capital may flow first into bonds and stocks, and it's still unclear whether crypto will get a turn once risk sentiment has settled.
As for how this relates to recent events, the latest U.S. inflation data has barely been digested, and now the Middle East conflict has added another variable. Markets are much more sensitive to bad news than good news, so this news is more of a psychological placebo.
Market impact
The impact on BTC/ETH prices may be a short-term improvement in sentiment, but mid-term pressure remains. BTC is currently at $83,177.3 and ETH at $2,552.2. Both have fallen for two days, suggesting that the market has already priced in the bad news. If the Iran conflict ends, some capital may buy the dip in the short term, but how much prices can rise will depend on the upcoming macroeconomic data. For example, if U.S. CPI remains high, the Federal Reserve may still have to raise rates, which would weaken the momentum behind a crypto rally.
In terms of the market landscape, this news has a greater impact on the U.S. dollar. If the dollar weakens due to falling oil prices, crypto could perform better, but this isn't a sure thing. As for the regulatory environment, regulations are tightening globally, and peace in the Middle East is unlikely to have much direct effect on regulatory easing.
A similar historical example is the COVID-19 pandemic in 2020. After the market plunged, global stocks and crypto both rebounded, but the size and pace of those rebounds varied. The situation today is more complex because interest rate hikes and regulatory pressure were not factors back then.
Trading approach
💡 I think this news could have a positive marginal effect on crypto. If the conflict really ends and inflation data also improves, BTC could stabilize around $85K. But this outlook would be invalidated if the Federal Reserve suddenly announced a 75-basis-point rate hike or a larger-scale hack occurred.
This article is not sponsored by any project, and the author does not hold any of the assets mentioned
$BTC $ETH #BTC #ETH
⚠️ This is not investment advice. Predictions are for reference only.
#GeneralAnalysis