It’s been almost a year since last year’s 10/10–10/11. Those of you who got liquidated last year, have you recovered this year?❓️
I’ve seen a lot of people discussing whether history will repeat itself this year❓️ Honestly, anyone asking this kind of question in the market probably hasn’t experienced a full cycle. They’re usually still caught up in their own perspective. But investing requires stepping outside yourself to analyze the bigger picture.
Here’s my conclusion first: I don’t think it can happen again. It’s like how people commemorate 3/12 every year after it happened, yet the market has never seen another 3/12. It’s just the psychological effect of “once bitten, twice shy.”
Last year, Trump announced an additional 100% tariff on China, which coincided with highly leveraged longs near market highs, thin weekend liquidity, and a flaw in Binance’s collateral pricing (with localized depegs in assets like USDe). Over about 24 hours, more than $19 billion was liquidated, wiping out around 1.6 million traders. Bitcoin plunged from a high of about $126,000 to around $102,000–$105,000, and many altcoins nearly went to zero. So it was mainly a combination of four factors: a sudden macro shock, extreme long leverage after a market peak, an exchange-specific pricing flaw, and thin weekend liquidity. It’s difficult to replicate that exact combination.
This year, meanwhile, the market has fallen about 32–34% from last October’s peak, and it has already seen significant deleveraging and price consolidation over the past year. Another wave of liquidations hit on October 6–7, totaling around $450–550 million, mostly affecting longs. Prices briefly dipped below $84,000, but this was a leverage reset rather than a systemic collapse. Funding rates are nowhere near as crowded as they were last year.
As for U.S.–China tariffs, there have recently been reports of tariff cuts on some goods following the summit. We haven’t seen the kind of sudden 100% tariff shock that happened last year.
So, to sum up, I think the odds of an exact repeat this year on the same scale and through the same mechanism are low. We’re missing the combination of last year’s sudden tariff shock and structural flaw. What do you think?❓️
$BTC
#比特币跌破8.4万美元
I’ve seen a lot of people discussing whether history will repeat itself this year❓️ Honestly, anyone asking this kind of question in the market probably hasn’t experienced a full cycle. They’re usually still caught up in their own perspective. But investing requires stepping outside yourself to analyze the bigger picture.
Here’s my conclusion first: I don’t think it can happen again. It’s like how people commemorate 3/12 every year after it happened, yet the market has never seen another 3/12. It’s just the psychological effect of “once bitten, twice shy.”
Last year, Trump announced an additional 100% tariff on China, which coincided with highly leveraged longs near market highs, thin weekend liquidity, and a flaw in Binance’s collateral pricing (with localized depegs in assets like USDe). Over about 24 hours, more than $19 billion was liquidated, wiping out around 1.6 million traders. Bitcoin plunged from a high of about $126,000 to around $102,000–$105,000, and many altcoins nearly went to zero. So it was mainly a combination of four factors: a sudden macro shock, extreme long leverage after a market peak, an exchange-specific pricing flaw, and thin weekend liquidity. It’s difficult to replicate that exact combination.
This year, meanwhile, the market has fallen about 32–34% from last October’s peak, and it has already seen significant deleveraging and price consolidation over the past year. Another wave of liquidations hit on October 6–7, totaling around $450–550 million, mostly affecting longs. Prices briefly dipped below $84,000, but this was a leverage reset rather than a systemic collapse. Funding rates are nowhere near as crowded as they were last year.
As for U.S.–China tariffs, there have recently been reports of tariff cuts on some goods following the summit. We haven’t seen the kind of sudden 100% tariff shock that happened last year.
So, to sum up, I think the odds of an exact repeat this year on the same scale and through the same mechanism are low. We’re missing the combination of last year’s sudden tariff shock and structural flaw. What do you think?❓️
$BTC
#比特币跌破8.4万美元
