CryptoQuant’s Bull Score—a composite score from 0 to 100 that combines on-chain data and market indicators—broke above 90 last week.
This is a reading that appears only in very rare circumstances.
Historically, Bull Score readings above 90 have corresponded to the early-to-middle stages of a trending bull market, not a top. Tops usually coincide with the NUPL (Net Unrealized Profit/Loss) index entering the “Euphoria” zone, while NUPL is still in the “Optimism” zone, a considerable distance from a top signal.
Meanwhile, three independent organizations/media outlets issued “new bull market” signals at the same time this week:
CryptoQuant: Bull Score 90, “Buying support following BTC’s break above the 365-day moving average is being absorbed, but the broader trend remains intact”; CoinDesk News (citing Kobeissi Letter): “Crypto is in a new bull market”; Peter Brandt (independent technical analyst): “The market has likely seen the cycle low and is entering a new bull market.”
Three independent sources, different methodologies, and almost the same timing—the last time this kind of convergence happened was between January and March 2023, when BTC rose from 16,000 to 30,000.
Of course, those signals came from a deeper bear-market bottom, while the starting point now is much higher (58,500 rather than 16,000). But the nature of the signals is similar: three independent lines of evidence—on-chain data, price action, and cycle analysis—all point in the same direction.
Today, the key event to watch is Waller’s speech at the Istanbul Economic Forum. He is a Federal Reserve governor and one of three dovish dissenters at the September FOMC meeting. He is the clearest voice within the Fed’s “pause rate hikes” camp. If his remarks today are dovish, BTC’s macro tailwind will continue; if they are hawkish, that would signal short-term pressure.
Technically, BTC is consolidating between 85,000 and 86,500. 87,400 is the breakout confirmation level, with targets at 90,000 and 93,000 above, and support between 84,000 and 82,000 below.
What do you think—does the Bull Score of 90 plus the three-way convergence on a “new bull market” signal make this setup more credible than in 2023, or make you more worried about buying near the top? Share your take.
$BTC
#BTC
This is a reading that appears only in very rare circumstances.
Historically, Bull Score readings above 90 have corresponded to the early-to-middle stages of a trending bull market, not a top. Tops usually coincide with the NUPL (Net Unrealized Profit/Loss) index entering the “Euphoria” zone, while NUPL is still in the “Optimism” zone, a considerable distance from a top signal.
Meanwhile, three independent organizations/media outlets issued “new bull market” signals at the same time this week:
CryptoQuant: Bull Score 90, “Buying support following BTC’s break above the 365-day moving average is being absorbed, but the broader trend remains intact”; CoinDesk News (citing Kobeissi Letter): “Crypto is in a new bull market”; Peter Brandt (independent technical analyst): “The market has likely seen the cycle low and is entering a new bull market.”
Three independent sources, different methodologies, and almost the same timing—the last time this kind of convergence happened was between January and March 2023, when BTC rose from 16,000 to 30,000.
Of course, those signals came from a deeper bear-market bottom, while the starting point now is much higher (58,500 rather than 16,000). But the nature of the signals is similar: three independent lines of evidence—on-chain data, price action, and cycle analysis—all point in the same direction.
Today, the key event to watch is Waller’s speech at the Istanbul Economic Forum. He is a Federal Reserve governor and one of three dovish dissenters at the September FOMC meeting. He is the clearest voice within the Fed’s “pause rate hikes” camp. If his remarks today are dovish, BTC’s macro tailwind will continue; if they are hawkish, that would signal short-term pressure.
Technically, BTC is consolidating between 85,000 and 86,500. 87,400 is the breakout confirmation level, with targets at 90,000 and 93,000 above, and support between 84,000 and 82,000 below.
What do you think—does the Bull Score of 90 plus the three-way convergence on a “new bull market” signal make this setup more credible than in 2023, or make you more worried about buying near the top? Share your take.
$BTC
#BTC
