Today, I’m paying closer attention to whether new buying can continue and whether on-chain projects can sustain their operations. I’m cautiously minded: capital hasn’t left across the board, but pressure is more concentrated on ETH, and project buzz is no substitute for sustainable revenue.

Spot ETFs are funds that hold actual Bitcoin or Ethereum and track the corresponding spot price. Investors buy and sell shares of these funds through brokerage accounts. On October 6, a full trading day, U.S. spot Bitcoin ETFs saw net inflows of about $119 million, while spot Ethereum ETFs saw net outflows of about $202 million, for combined net outflows of $83.1 million. Flows into and out of these funds can reflect demand through this channel, but they don’t represent all institutional investors. BTC still attracting inflows is important evidence against the claim that “institutions are leaving across the board”; ETH’s outflows, meanwhile, are worth monitoring. The October 7 trading day is not yet over, so data that has not yet been reported should not be treated as zero flows.

Meanwhile, reports say that Bitmine Chairman Tom Lee said at an event today that the company would stop buying once its ETH holdings reach 5% of the supply. This describes a cap on future purchases; it does not mean buying stopped today, nor is it an announcement that the company will sell its existing holdings. For ETH, the risk is that one source of sustained demand may gradually weaken. Whether that actually affects the market will still depend on whether other companies, funds, and on-chain usage demand can take its place. Today’s price movements cannot all be attributed to this statement.

The macro backdrop was not particularly supportive either. Oil prices, the dollar, and U.S. Treasury yields strengthened during the Asian morning session, while crypto prices retreated. Higher oil prices could add to inflationary pressure, while higher yields raise the opportunity cost of holding risk assets. But this is only a plausible explanation of how macro factors might feed through; it does not prove that every sell order was driven by them.

On-chain funds showed another set of mixed signals: the circulating supply of dollar-pegged stablecoins rose about 0.51% from seven days earlier, while the rolling seven-day trading volume on decentralized exchanges fell about 9.52% from the previous window, and the value of assets locked in protocols declined about 0.94%. “Value locked” refers to the total value of assets held in on-chain financial applications. More stablecoins means the available pool of funds has expanded slightly, not that those funds have already been used to buy crypto. The trading window includes data for today, which is not yet complete, and the value locked is also affected by token prices. So these figures are not enough to confirm a recovery in risk appetite.

A more direct impact on users’ assets comes from Abstract’s announcement that it will stop operating on December 15, and its warning that users should withdraw their assets beforehand or they will lose access. Abstract is a layer-2 network that processes transactions outside the Ethereum mainnet and then has them verified by the mainnet. It is still in a migration period, so it would be inaccurate to say it has already shut down. The team cited stagnant growth, weak liquidity, and limited institutional participation as reasons. What concerns me is that an application’s popularity does not necessarily generate enough revenue for the underlying network. This case does not prove that all layer-2 networks will fail, but it is a reminder that holders should prioritize exit routes and the ability to sustain operations over transaction counts. For any migration, verify the details through official channels confirmed by the project, and beware of direct messages impersonating the team and fake websites.

The most useful things to watch next are whether outflows from ETH funds persist, whether the pace of actual corporate purchases changes, and whether stablecoin growth is accompanied by sustained trading demand. Abstract users should first verify their asset withdrawal arrangements. Other investors should avoid treating a single day’s flows or market buzz as evidence that the trend has already reversed.

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