The minutes released in the early hours of the 8th will likely strike a hawkish tone, and a rate hike could come in December
The Fed already raised rates by 25 basis points in September, and the dot plot also put another hike this year in the median projection.
Markets have now largely ruled out a rate hike in October, with the probability at only around 22%. But the probability of a December hike to 4.00%–4.25% is already close to 68%.
More importantly, Daly’s recent comments haven’t ruled out further rate hikes:
If the inflationary shocks from tariffs, oil prices, and AI demand are only temporary, the Fed can pause;
but if these factors continue to build, the Fed may still tighten further.
And now $BZ has climbed back above $100, giving hawks a fresh reason to push for that.
So my view is that the minutes may not explicitly say “there will definitely be a hike in December,” but will likely send a clear signal: inflation hasn’t been beaten, and the Fed hasn’t ruled out further rate hikes.
Market action:
I don’t think today’s sharp drop in crypto was mainly driven by traders positioning ahead of the minutes. Rather, it was a combination of the oil price shock, rising Treasury yields, and a wave of liquidations among heavily leveraged longs.
$BZ surged above $101, the 10-year Treasury yield broke through 5.3%, and $BTC briefly fell below $84,000. Oil prices are weighing on valuations, while leverage is fueling a cascade of liquidations, naturally amplifying the losses.
If tonight’s minutes remain hawkish and the dollar and Treasury yields climb further, BTC will likely face more near-term pressure.
My approach:
I’m not chasing the drop. I’ll wait for the panic to subside first.
83,000 is the near-term support level. If it holds, I’ll wait for the liquidations to end before looking for a rebound;
if it breaks below 83,000, we’ll need to watch out for a move toward 80,000.
What really matters tonight isn’t just how hawkish the minutes are, but whether oil prices keep rising and yields continue to climb.
If these two variables don’t come down, even dovish wording alone will have a hard time rescuing crypto. #美联储纪要
The Fed already raised rates by 25 basis points in September, and the dot plot also put another hike this year in the median projection.
Markets have now largely ruled out a rate hike in October, with the probability at only around 22%. But the probability of a December hike to 4.00%–4.25% is already close to 68%.
More importantly, Daly’s recent comments haven’t ruled out further rate hikes:
If the inflationary shocks from tariffs, oil prices, and AI demand are only temporary, the Fed can pause;
but if these factors continue to build, the Fed may still tighten further.
And now $BZ has climbed back above $100, giving hawks a fresh reason to push for that.
So my view is that the minutes may not explicitly say “there will definitely be a hike in December,” but will likely send a clear signal: inflation hasn’t been beaten, and the Fed hasn’t ruled out further rate hikes.
Market action:
I don’t think today’s sharp drop in crypto was mainly driven by traders positioning ahead of the minutes. Rather, it was a combination of the oil price shock, rising Treasury yields, and a wave of liquidations among heavily leveraged longs.
$BZ surged above $101, the 10-year Treasury yield broke through 5.3%, and $BTC briefly fell below $84,000. Oil prices are weighing on valuations, while leverage is fueling a cascade of liquidations, naturally amplifying the losses.
If tonight’s minutes remain hawkish and the dollar and Treasury yields climb further, BTC will likely face more near-term pressure.
My approach:
I’m not chasing the drop. I’ll wait for the panic to subside first.
83,000 is the near-term support level. If it holds, I’ll wait for the liquidations to end before looking for a rebound;
if it breaks below 83,000, we’ll need to watch out for a move toward 80,000.
What really matters tonight isn’t just how hawkish the minutes are, but whether oil prices keep rising and yields continue to climb.
If these two variables don’t come down, even dovish wording alone will have a hard time rescuing crypto. #美联储纪要