Middle East tensions keep oil above $100 as October Fed hike expectations cool

🛢️ Brent crude remains above $101 a barrel as Saudi-Houthi tensions continue to support the geopolitical risk premium. The Saudi-led coalition said it intercepted a missile north of Riyadh, while the Houthis claimed attacks on several targets across Saudi Arabia.

🌍 On the diplomatic front, U.S. Vice President JD Vance said Iran would need to meaningfully reduce its uranium enrichment capacity to move toward ending the war. Washington remains in contact with Tehran, but uncertainty persists over where effective decision-making power lies within Iran.

📉 Despite elevated oil prices, markets have sharply reduced the probability of a Fed rate hike in October to about 20.5%, from nearly 51% a week earlier. Expectations for a December hike remain high, however, suggesting energy-driven inflation risks have not been fully priced out.

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