Bitcoin rose 225% over three years—but take away its best 15 days and it would have lost 11%
🔭 进群看资金去哪
That’s the conclusion in an October 5 report by Zach Pandl, head of research at Grayscale. The analysis covered the three years through September 23 and used spot bitcoin prices against the U.S. dollar. The result is sobering: nearly all the gains were concentrated in a tiny handful of trading days. 🦖
Here are the numbers from the report: fewer than 0.5% of trading days accounted for more than half of the total gains. Remove just the five best days, and the 225% return falls straight to 95—less than half. Remove 10 days, and only 27% remains. Remove 15, and the return flips to a loss of 11%. 📊
To show just how extreme this is, Grayscale compared bitcoin with the Nasdaq 100. Over the same period, the Nasdaq rose 109%. Even after removing its 15 best days, it was still up 21%—a much more evenly distributed return. Before those 15 days were removed, bitcoin’s 225% return was more than twice the Nasdaq’s 109%. Afterward, bitcoin was down 11% while the Nasdaq was up 21%. The comparison completely flips.
These figures come from Grayscale’s research series, The Stack. The analysis used spot prices, not futures, and didn’t use leverage.
My take: these numbers shouldn’t be read as bearish. What they really show is that bitcoin’s returns are highly concentrated in a tiny number of days. If you happen to miss those days, your results over three years can be worlds apart. For ordinary investors, that means trying to time the market precisely is almost a game of chance. It’s hard to know in advance which days will be among those five. The only things you can control are your position size and whether you stay invested.
Worth noting: the 225% gain over three years isn’t quite as impressive as it sounds, either. Today, bitcoin briefly fell below $84,000, down about 1.5% on the day, and pulled further back from its early-month highs. Short-term sentiment is cooling, while long-term returns are propped up by a handful of trading days. Both are reminders of the same thing.
Do you think ordinary investors can really catch the 15 best days over a three-year period? Share your thoughts in the comments.
Tap the profile picture to watch the livestream.
Every day, we bring you the latest bitcoin topics—not just what’s happening, but the logic and opportunities behind it. 👀🚀
🔭 进群看资金去哪
That’s the conclusion in an October 5 report by Zach Pandl, head of research at Grayscale. The analysis covered the three years through September 23 and used spot bitcoin prices against the U.S. dollar. The result is sobering: nearly all the gains were concentrated in a tiny handful of trading days. 🦖
Here are the numbers from the report: fewer than 0.5% of trading days accounted for more than half of the total gains. Remove just the five best days, and the 225% return falls straight to 95—less than half. Remove 10 days, and only 27% remains. Remove 15, and the return flips to a loss of 11%. 📊
To show just how extreme this is, Grayscale compared bitcoin with the Nasdaq 100. Over the same period, the Nasdaq rose 109%. Even after removing its 15 best days, it was still up 21%—a much more evenly distributed return. Before those 15 days were removed, bitcoin’s 225% return was more than twice the Nasdaq’s 109%. Afterward, bitcoin was down 11% while the Nasdaq was up 21%. The comparison completely flips.
These figures come from Grayscale’s research series, The Stack. The analysis used spot prices, not futures, and didn’t use leverage.
My take: these numbers shouldn’t be read as bearish. What they really show is that bitcoin’s returns are highly concentrated in a tiny number of days. If you happen to miss those days, your results over three years can be worlds apart. For ordinary investors, that means trying to time the market precisely is almost a game of chance. It’s hard to know in advance which days will be among those five. The only things you can control are your position size and whether you stay invested.
Worth noting: the 225% gain over three years isn’t quite as impressive as it sounds, either. Today, bitcoin briefly fell below $84,000, down about 1.5% on the day, and pulled further back from its early-month highs. Short-term sentiment is cooling, while long-term returns are propped up by a handful of trading days. Both are reminders of the same thing.
Do you think ordinary investors can really catch the 15 best days over a three-year period? Share your thoughts in the comments.
Tap the profile picture to watch the livestream.
Every day, we bring you the latest bitcoin topics—not just what’s happening, but the logic and opportunities behind it. 👀🚀
