ETH has had over 200 million USD withdrawn for five consecutive days.
But it hasn't dropped. It hovered around 2700 for seven days straight, stubbornly holding steady.
Looking at the trend over 30 days, it has actually risen by nearly 10%.
Something's off, so I reviewed it and found about three reasons.
First, the conclusion: the money hasn't left; it's just in different hands.
First, the "outflow."
Redemption doesn't equal selling. When someone redeems fund shares, the manager has to free up the coins for them.
The coins haven't moved; they've just shifted from the fund's account to the individual's own wallet.
The only real loss on the entire chain is the transaction fee.
So the term "outflow" is a bit scary but misleading.
Second, that batch of old coins moved.
Addresses that had been dormant for years suddenly started moving, with activity nine times the usual, looking like big holders were about to exit.
But the coins in exchanges barely increased.
If they really wanted to sell, the coins would have to enter exchanges first. Since they didn't, it's not selling.
It might just be a wallet swap or staking.
Third, the shorts are busier than the longs.
The pressure to dump has been increasing, and positions have piled up high.
But leverage is retreating, down to a seven-month low, meaning less money is being risked at the table.
Heavy bets on one side, while clearing the table on the other.
In this situation, every day you hold on, you pay interest for another day.
In the end, the first to break are often not the bulls, but those borrowing money to short.
Main point: even by doing nothing, they can still wear you down. Haha, impressive. #BinanceLaunchesBinanceIntelligence #WinklevossFilesSpotZcashETFApplication
But it hasn't dropped. It hovered around 2700 for seven days straight, stubbornly holding steady.
Looking at the trend over 30 days, it has actually risen by nearly 10%.
Something's off, so I reviewed it and found about three reasons.
First, the conclusion: the money hasn't left; it's just in different hands.
First, the "outflow."
Redemption doesn't equal selling. When someone redeems fund shares, the manager has to free up the coins for them.
The coins haven't moved; they've just shifted from the fund's account to the individual's own wallet.
The only real loss on the entire chain is the transaction fee.
So the term "outflow" is a bit scary but misleading.
Second, that batch of old coins moved.
Addresses that had been dormant for years suddenly started moving, with activity nine times the usual, looking like big holders were about to exit.
But the coins in exchanges barely increased.
If they really wanted to sell, the coins would have to enter exchanges first. Since they didn't, it's not selling.
It might just be a wallet swap or staking.
Third, the shorts are busier than the longs.
The pressure to dump has been increasing, and positions have piled up high.
But leverage is retreating, down to a seven-month low, meaning less money is being risked at the table.
Heavy bets on one side, while clearing the table on the other.
In this situation, every day you hold on, you pay interest for another day.
In the end, the first to break are often not the bulls, but those borrowing money to short.
Main point: even by doing nothing, they can still wear you down. Haha, impressive. #BinanceLaunchesBinanceIntelligence #WinklevossFilesSpotZcashETFApplication