š Stocks hit an all-time high the same evening Bitcoin fell
U.S. stocks closed at record highs last night. The S&P 500 rose 0.58%, closing at 7,818.93 points and topping 7,800 for the first time ever. The Nasdaq also set a record at 27,599.79, while the Dow rose 0.49%. It was the first record close in two months.
AI chips provided the spark. Marvell, AMD, and Broadcom have all recently signaled that demand for computing power is still rising. AMDās CEO said the company plans to significantly increase production in 2027. Money is still flowing into AI.
The bond market provided another boost. The 10-year Treasury yield closed at 5.31% on Monday, after touching 5.349% intraday. The 30-year yield closed at 5.66%. Both long-term yields are at levels not seen in more than 20 years. On Tuesday, they dipped just 4 basis pointsābasically noise. That little bit of easing was enough for stocks.
Bitcoin didnāt catch the rally. As I write this, four BTC price feeds put it between $84,150 and $84,185, down 1.6% over 24 hours, with an intraday low of $83,577. Itās a third below its peak above $126,000 last October.
Whatās the difference?
This stock rally is riding on the numbers behind AI capital spending, with little to do with whether interest rates ease. Crypto needs cheap moneyāreal easing at the short end. But the short end hasnāt budged. CME has pushed the odds of no rate hike in October to around 80%. That looks like good news, but the odds of a hike in December still sit at roughly 70%, which means the sword has merely been pushed back a month. The U.S. Dollar Index touched a year-to-date high of 102.53 on Monday. Non-yielding assets are getting hit from both sides.
The math makes it clear. With the 10-year yield at 5.3%, holding an ounce of gold worth $4,140 means giving up $221 in interest over a year. The same calculation applies to Bitcoin.
Tonight at 2 p.m. Eastern timeāthatās 2 a.m. tomorrow in Beijingāthe Fed will release minutes from its September meeting. The market will be looking for two things: how much disagreement there was among policymakers when they raised rates by 25 basis points, and whether officials are concerned about long-term yields surging to 5.3%. The first will determine whether they can hold the line in October; the second, how much further long-term yields can climb. The minutes are just the appetizer. The main event is CPI on October 14.
One market hit a new high while the other fell behind at the same poker table. The dividing line is the price of money.
$BTC $ETH
#äøę¬čŖå½é ē¤¾åŗBaoluoåøåčµę¬ #å®č§ē»ęµ #FederalReserve
U.S. stocks closed at record highs last night. The S&P 500 rose 0.58%, closing at 7,818.93 points and topping 7,800 for the first time ever. The Nasdaq also set a record at 27,599.79, while the Dow rose 0.49%. It was the first record close in two months.
AI chips provided the spark. Marvell, AMD, and Broadcom have all recently signaled that demand for computing power is still rising. AMDās CEO said the company plans to significantly increase production in 2027. Money is still flowing into AI.
The bond market provided another boost. The 10-year Treasury yield closed at 5.31% on Monday, after touching 5.349% intraday. The 30-year yield closed at 5.66%. Both long-term yields are at levels not seen in more than 20 years. On Tuesday, they dipped just 4 basis pointsābasically noise. That little bit of easing was enough for stocks.
Bitcoin didnāt catch the rally. As I write this, four BTC price feeds put it between $84,150 and $84,185, down 1.6% over 24 hours, with an intraday low of $83,577. Itās a third below its peak above $126,000 last October.
Whatās the difference?
This stock rally is riding on the numbers behind AI capital spending, with little to do with whether interest rates ease. Crypto needs cheap moneyāreal easing at the short end. But the short end hasnāt budged. CME has pushed the odds of no rate hike in October to around 80%. That looks like good news, but the odds of a hike in December still sit at roughly 70%, which means the sword has merely been pushed back a month. The U.S. Dollar Index touched a year-to-date high of 102.53 on Monday. Non-yielding assets are getting hit from both sides.
The math makes it clear. With the 10-year yield at 5.3%, holding an ounce of gold worth $4,140 means giving up $221 in interest over a year. The same calculation applies to Bitcoin.
Tonight at 2 p.m. Eastern timeāthatās 2 a.m. tomorrow in Beijingāthe Fed will release minutes from its September meeting. The market will be looking for two things: how much disagreement there was among policymakers when they raised rates by 25 basis points, and whether officials are concerned about long-term yields surging to 5.3%. The first will determine whether they can hold the line in October; the second, how much further long-term yields can climb. The minutes are just the appetizer. The main event is CPI on October 14.
One market hit a new high while the other fell behind at the same poker table. The dividing line is the price of money.
$BTC $ETH
#äøę¬čŖå½é ē¤¾åŗBaoluoåøåčµę¬ #å®č§ē»ęµ #FederalReserve
