The market has been stuck near the highs for a long time. When will the sell-off gain momentum?
The holiday’s over! I spent a few days traveling over the National Day holiday, and there’s a market move waiting for me now that I’m back.
I’ve been bearish since September 23, when the price was above 87,000, and I’ve stayed that way ever since—almost half a month now. There’s been a bit of a decline, but I haven’t exited. During the National Day holiday, the price climbed back to around 86,000, partly due to the nonfarm payrolls report. It affected my mindset a little, but it hasn’t shaken my conviction that the market will fall.
Let me share my personal view again. I’ll cover both the larger and smaller timeframes. If you disagree, just take it for what it’s worth—there’s no need to make a big deal out of it.
1. On the monthly chart, the larger timeframe is currently in a rebound phase following a Wave 4 pullback. There’s still a Wave 5 advance ahead. Personally, I expect a range of 150,000–180,000. But everyone knows it hasn’t been that long since the last bear market, so the bull market won’t arrive and finish so quickly. On the larger timeframe, I think the price will first return to 100,000, then trade sideways for at least another six months. That should allow enough time for the market to consolidate. After Wave 5 is complete, we’ll enter a bear market on the larger timeframe.
2. As for price swings over the next month or two, my view is unchanged. The key point is that we’re now in the early stages of a bull market, but even after it gets underway, there’ll be a deep pullback to shake out weak hands. That will set the stage for a stronger move up later. We haven’t had that pullback yet, so it’s difficult for the price to keep climbing. I’ve kept calling for a short at 87,000 because I’m looking for a deep pullback, then a chance to go long at 72,000 and target 100,000.
By the way, I’m going to make a legendary call! Actually, if I’m wrong, my stop-loss is at 89,000. Let the market decide. #BTC
The holiday’s over! I spent a few days traveling over the National Day holiday, and there’s a market move waiting for me now that I’m back.
I’ve been bearish since September 23, when the price was above 87,000, and I’ve stayed that way ever since—almost half a month now. There’s been a bit of a decline, but I haven’t exited. During the National Day holiday, the price climbed back to around 86,000, partly due to the nonfarm payrolls report. It affected my mindset a little, but it hasn’t shaken my conviction that the market will fall.
Let me share my personal view again. I’ll cover both the larger and smaller timeframes. If you disagree, just take it for what it’s worth—there’s no need to make a big deal out of it.
1. On the monthly chart, the larger timeframe is currently in a rebound phase following a Wave 4 pullback. There’s still a Wave 5 advance ahead. Personally, I expect a range of 150,000–180,000. But everyone knows it hasn’t been that long since the last bear market, so the bull market won’t arrive and finish so quickly. On the larger timeframe, I think the price will first return to 100,000, then trade sideways for at least another six months. That should allow enough time for the market to consolidate. After Wave 5 is complete, we’ll enter a bear market on the larger timeframe.
2. As for price swings over the next month or two, my view is unchanged. The key point is that we’re now in the early stages of a bull market, but even after it gets underway, there’ll be a deep pullback to shake out weak hands. That will set the stage for a stronger move up later. We haven’t had that pullback yet, so it’s difficult for the price to keep climbing. I’ve kept calling for a short at 87,000 because I’m looking for a deep pullback, then a chance to go long at 72,000 and target 100,000.
By the way, I’m going to make a legendary call! Actually, if I’m wrong, my stop-loss is at 89,000. Let the market decide. #BTC