#美联储10月维持利率概率升至82.3%
Markets’ bets on the Fed holding steady in October surged to 89.5%, but Fed officials spoke out that same evening: there’s still work to do on short-term rates 🦖
🔍 进群聊行情
Early in the morning on October 7 Beijing time, two Fed officials spoke in quick succession: Kansas City Fed President Schmid and San Francisco Fed President Daly. Their message was remarkably consistent. Just three weeks after the latest rate hike, they’re now saying inflation is picking up again—and it’s not yet time to call off this tightening cycle.
The numbers best illustrate the divide. On October 5, CME FedWatch showed an 82.3% probability that rates would remain unchanged in October, and just a 17.7% probability of a 25-basis-point hike. But in the same data, the probability of no change in December fell to 17.3%. The odds of another 25 basis points of cumulative hikes stood at a hefty 68.7%, while the chance of another 50 basis points was 14%. 📊 By October 7, the odds of holding steady in October had climbed again, to 89.5%. In a nutshell: bets are on a pause in the near term, but more hikes before year-end.
Schmid was the most direct. He said inflation is a thief that harms the lower half of income earners far more than the higher half. If the Fed doesn’t keep acting to bring inflation back down to 2%, its credibility will be at risk. He listed energy prices as one of the biggest challenges for monetary policy, and singled out AI as driving up demand through data centers and semiconductors. He stressed that the sharp rise in 5-, 10- and 30-year Treasury yields is indeed changing the cost of capital—but the Fed focuses on short-term rates, and there’s still work to do there.
Daly’s focus was a little different. She reiterated that she strongly supported the rate hike three weeks ago, saying a hike was entirely necessary at this point. What really worries her is that AI-driven chip demand could spill over into autos and home appliances. Companies have already started locking in forward contracts, and in her view, this isn’t a one-off shock; it may take longer to ease. As for whether rates should rise further, that will depend on tariffs, oil prices amid the Middle East conflict, and how the effects of AI evolve.
Interestingly, the officials struck a hawkish tone, but markets didn’t seem to care. On Tuesday, the Dow rose 0.49% and the S&P 500 gained 0.58%. Both the Nasdaq and S&P 500 closed at record highs. Bitcoin, meanwhile, hovered around $85,463, down 0.66% over 24 hours, while Ethereum fell 0.89% to $2,694.
My take: the real question this time isn’t whether the Fed hikes in October, but what the path looks like for the rest of the year. A 68.7% chance of another hike before December shows that the market doesn’t see a pause as the end point—it sees it as a halftime break. ⚠️ If the officials’ hawkish outlook is borne out by the data, U.S. stocks still hitting new highs and Bitcoin hovering around $85,000 will both have to be repriced. On the other hand, if inflation data cooperate, markets will once again mark down the odds of a hike. That’s why every inflation and jobs report from here on will carry more weight.
Let’s talk in the comments: do you think the Fed will hike rates again this year? 📈
Every day, I bring you the latest on the Fed and crypto markets—not just what’s happening, but the logic and opportunities behind it. 👀🚀
Markets’ bets on the Fed holding steady in October surged to 89.5%, but Fed officials spoke out that same evening: there’s still work to do on short-term rates 🦖
🔍 进群聊行情
Early in the morning on October 7 Beijing time, two Fed officials spoke in quick succession: Kansas City Fed President Schmid and San Francisco Fed President Daly. Their message was remarkably consistent. Just three weeks after the latest rate hike, they’re now saying inflation is picking up again—and it’s not yet time to call off this tightening cycle.
The numbers best illustrate the divide. On October 5, CME FedWatch showed an 82.3% probability that rates would remain unchanged in October, and just a 17.7% probability of a 25-basis-point hike. But in the same data, the probability of no change in December fell to 17.3%. The odds of another 25 basis points of cumulative hikes stood at a hefty 68.7%, while the chance of another 50 basis points was 14%. 📊 By October 7, the odds of holding steady in October had climbed again, to 89.5%. In a nutshell: bets are on a pause in the near term, but more hikes before year-end.
Schmid was the most direct. He said inflation is a thief that harms the lower half of income earners far more than the higher half. If the Fed doesn’t keep acting to bring inflation back down to 2%, its credibility will be at risk. He listed energy prices as one of the biggest challenges for monetary policy, and singled out AI as driving up demand through data centers and semiconductors. He stressed that the sharp rise in 5-, 10- and 30-year Treasury yields is indeed changing the cost of capital—but the Fed focuses on short-term rates, and there’s still work to do there.
Daly’s focus was a little different. She reiterated that she strongly supported the rate hike three weeks ago, saying a hike was entirely necessary at this point. What really worries her is that AI-driven chip demand could spill over into autos and home appliances. Companies have already started locking in forward contracts, and in her view, this isn’t a one-off shock; it may take longer to ease. As for whether rates should rise further, that will depend on tariffs, oil prices amid the Middle East conflict, and how the effects of AI evolve.
Interestingly, the officials struck a hawkish tone, but markets didn’t seem to care. On Tuesday, the Dow rose 0.49% and the S&P 500 gained 0.58%. Both the Nasdaq and S&P 500 closed at record highs. Bitcoin, meanwhile, hovered around $85,463, down 0.66% over 24 hours, while Ethereum fell 0.89% to $2,694.
My take: the real question this time isn’t whether the Fed hikes in October, but what the path looks like for the rest of the year. A 68.7% chance of another hike before December shows that the market doesn’t see a pause as the end point—it sees it as a halftime break. ⚠️ If the officials’ hawkish outlook is borne out by the data, U.S. stocks still hitting new highs and Bitcoin hovering around $85,000 will both have to be repriced. On the other hand, if inflation data cooperate, markets will once again mark down the odds of a hike. That’s why every inflation and jobs report from here on will carry more weight.
Let’s talk in the comments: do you think the Fed will hike rates again this year? 📈
Every day, I bring you the latest on the Fed and crypto markets—not just what’s happening, but the logic and opportunities behind it. 👀🚀
