Three bullish catalysts in a row, and BTC says: “I’m sitting this one out.”
On October 2, the market got two pieces of “textbook bullish news” on the same day:
1⃣ The SEC approved the listing on Cboe of six 3x leveraged ETPs issued by Volatility Shares’ VS Trust. They include the first-ever 3x BTC/ETH products in the U.S. (provisionally tickered BITH and ETHK), plus four others linked to gold, silver, crude oil, and natural gas. The products track CME futures and aim to deliver 3x the daily return.
2⃣ U.S. September nonfarm payrolls came in much weaker than expected: only 29,000 jobs were added (versus expectations of 80,000–90,000), the unemployment rate rose to 4.2%, and the July/August total was revised down by 60,000. The odds of another rate hike in October plunged from 66% to just over 20%, while the 10-year U.S. Treasury yield fell back to 5.17%.
By textbook logic, rising rate-cut expectations plus the opening of the door to leveraged products should send BTC soaring. But what happened? BTC is still stuck below 86,000. Its third attempt to break 87,000 failed, and bulls and bears are still locked in a tug-of-war.
My take: the market is becoming increasingly numb to “paper positives.” Let me pour some cold water on this. First, the 3x ETPs have only been approved for listing; their registration statements aren’t effective yet, so they can’t actually be bought—and they haven’t brought in any real buying pressure. Second, leveraged ETPs are trading tools, not investments. Bloomberg analyst Balchunas has long warned that they rebalance daily, and holding them for too long can let volatility eat away most of your gains (if the underlying rises 10% and then falls 10%, a 3x product loses 9% net; in a sideways market, it’s a slow bleed).
The real signal isn’t in approval headlines—it’s in the money: watch daily net ETF flows and the FOMC’s decision on October 28. In a rate-hiking cycle, liquidity is the only real hard currency. Until actual money flows in, chasing rallies in a range-bound market usually isn’t a high-probability trade.
I’ll keep following the intersection of macro trends and regulation. Follow me to stay in the loop. Do you think BTC can get back to 100,000 before year-end?
$BTC $ETH
#BitcoinStuckBelow86K
Data as of: 2026-10-06 22:00 UTC
Sources: CoinDesk; The Agent Times
For informational purposes only; not investment advice.
On October 2, the market got two pieces of “textbook bullish news” on the same day:
1⃣ The SEC approved the listing on Cboe of six 3x leveraged ETPs issued by Volatility Shares’ VS Trust. They include the first-ever 3x BTC/ETH products in the U.S. (provisionally tickered BITH and ETHK), plus four others linked to gold, silver, crude oil, and natural gas. The products track CME futures and aim to deliver 3x the daily return.
2⃣ U.S. September nonfarm payrolls came in much weaker than expected: only 29,000 jobs were added (versus expectations of 80,000–90,000), the unemployment rate rose to 4.2%, and the July/August total was revised down by 60,000. The odds of another rate hike in October plunged from 66% to just over 20%, while the 10-year U.S. Treasury yield fell back to 5.17%.
By textbook logic, rising rate-cut expectations plus the opening of the door to leveraged products should send BTC soaring. But what happened? BTC is still stuck below 86,000. Its third attempt to break 87,000 failed, and bulls and bears are still locked in a tug-of-war.
My take: the market is becoming increasingly numb to “paper positives.” Let me pour some cold water on this. First, the 3x ETPs have only been approved for listing; their registration statements aren’t effective yet, so they can’t actually be bought—and they haven’t brought in any real buying pressure. Second, leveraged ETPs are trading tools, not investments. Bloomberg analyst Balchunas has long warned that they rebalance daily, and holding them for too long can let volatility eat away most of your gains (if the underlying rises 10% and then falls 10%, a 3x product loses 9% net; in a sideways market, it’s a slow bleed).
The real signal isn’t in approval headlines—it’s in the money: watch daily net ETF flows and the FOMC’s decision on October 28. In a rate-hiking cycle, liquidity is the only real hard currency. Until actual money flows in, chasing rallies in a range-bound market usually isn’t a high-probability trade.
I’ll keep following the intersection of macro trends and regulation. Follow me to stay in the loop. Do you think BTC can get back to 100,000 before year-end?
$BTC $ETH
#BitcoinStuckBelow86K
Data as of: 2026-10-06 22:00 UTC
Sources: CoinDesk; The Agent Times
For informational purposes only; not investment advice.
