【At 2 a.m. tonight, global markets will be waiting for the minutes】$BTC
At 2 a.m. Beijing time tonight (October 7 at 14:00 Eastern Time), the Fed will release the minutes of its September 15–16 FOMC meeting.
This was the meeting on September 16 when the Fed decided to raise rates by 25 basis points, bringing them to 3.75%–4.00%—its first rate hike since July 2023. Markets still haven’t figured out what the Fed is really thinking. The minutes will need to answer three questions:
1️⃣ Which is the bigger risk in officials’ eyes: inflation or employment?
2️⃣ Was the interest-rate level at the time restrictive enough to bring inflation down?
3⃣ Will rates be raised again on October 28 and in December?
CME FedWatch data for October 6: the probability of rates remaining unchanged in October is 75.9%, while the probability of another 25 bp hike is 24.1%; the probability of a cumulative additional 25 bp hike by December is about 67%.
My take: This is BTC’s most vulnerable 24-hour period in the rate-hiking cycle. BTC failed in its third attempt to break $87,000 and is now hovering around $86,000. The dot plot shows that 16 of the 19 officials expect another hike this year. Tonight will probably play out in one of three ways:
📍 Hawkish: The minutes mention that several officials see inflation as the primary risk and discuss further action in October → rate-hike bets rise → BTC tests support at $84,000
📍 Dovish: Officials are more concerned about employment and economic growth → expectations of a rate-hike pause firm up → BTC may challenge resistance at $87,000 again
📍 Uneventful: The minutes offer no new information → the event passes, volatility subsides, and markets continue waiting for October’s CPI
Whichever way it goes, volatility will be amplified in the minute the minutes are released. Managing risk is more important than guessing the direction.
Data as of: 2026-10-06 21:25 UTC
Sources: CME FedWatch (October 6 data); Schwab Network, “Week Ahead: FOMC Minutes Kick Off Final Quarter of 2026”
For informational purposes only; not investment advice.
#FOMCMinutes
I’ll continue tracking macro data like this—follow me to stay in the loop.
Will you stay up tonight to wait for the minutes?
At 2 a.m. Beijing time tonight (October 7 at 14:00 Eastern Time), the Fed will release the minutes of its September 15–16 FOMC meeting.
This was the meeting on September 16 when the Fed decided to raise rates by 25 basis points, bringing them to 3.75%–4.00%—its first rate hike since July 2023. Markets still haven’t figured out what the Fed is really thinking. The minutes will need to answer three questions:
1️⃣ Which is the bigger risk in officials’ eyes: inflation or employment?
2️⃣ Was the interest-rate level at the time restrictive enough to bring inflation down?
3⃣ Will rates be raised again on October 28 and in December?
CME FedWatch data for October 6: the probability of rates remaining unchanged in October is 75.9%, while the probability of another 25 bp hike is 24.1%; the probability of a cumulative additional 25 bp hike by December is about 67%.
My take: This is BTC’s most vulnerable 24-hour period in the rate-hiking cycle. BTC failed in its third attempt to break $87,000 and is now hovering around $86,000. The dot plot shows that 16 of the 19 officials expect another hike this year. Tonight will probably play out in one of three ways:
📍 Hawkish: The minutes mention that several officials see inflation as the primary risk and discuss further action in October → rate-hike bets rise → BTC tests support at $84,000
📍 Dovish: Officials are more concerned about employment and economic growth → expectations of a rate-hike pause firm up → BTC may challenge resistance at $87,000 again
📍 Uneventful: The minutes offer no new information → the event passes, volatility subsides, and markets continue waiting for October’s CPI
Whichever way it goes, volatility will be amplified in the minute the minutes are released. Managing risk is more important than guessing the direction.
Data as of: 2026-10-06 21:25 UTC
Sources: CME FedWatch (October 6 data); Schwab Network, “Week Ahead: FOMC Minutes Kick Off Final Quarter of 2026”
For informational purposes only; not investment advice.
#FOMCMinutes
I’ll continue tracking macro data like this—follow me to stay in the loop.
Will you stay up tonight to wait for the minutes?
