Here's what actually happened the last few days — before the overbought crowd and "top" callers flood back in.
The $SPX is cheaper now than it was in July. Earnings estimates for the mega-caps kept climbing all summer: September-quarter EPS up 2%, 2027 estimates up 11%. The index itself? Up less than 5%.
Earnings did the work. The multiple didn't.
Since July 1:
$SPX +4.6%
Sep-Q EPS (wtd) +2.2%
2027 strategist EPS +11.1%
P/E on 2027 earnings: 20.8x → 19.6x
Expect a little more drift higher, then digestion, coil, repeat. The key is not getting chopped up in between.
We see what some of you are positioning for and why it hasn't worked. The drawdown already came in February and March. We don't expect another 6–9% selloff this year.
Send this to any bear friends. It'll save them heartache and money.
$SPY $QQQ
The $SPX is cheaper now than it was in July. Earnings estimates for the mega-caps kept climbing all summer: September-quarter EPS up 2%, 2027 estimates up 11%. The index itself? Up less than 5%.
Earnings did the work. The multiple didn't.
Since July 1:
$SPX +4.6%
Sep-Q EPS (wtd) +2.2%
2027 strategist EPS +11.1%
P/E on 2027 earnings: 20.8x → 19.6x
Expect a little more drift higher, then digestion, coil, repeat. The key is not getting chopped up in between.
We see what some of you are positioning for and why it hasn't worked. The drawdown already came in February and March. We don't expect another 6–9% selloff this year.
Send this to any bear friends. It'll save them heartache and money.
$SPY $QQQ