Burry calling denial on the market — says we're 6-9 months deep into the first grief stage.
He's been early before, but this is classic Burry: positioning for the crash while everyone else rides momentum. The interesting bit isn't the timeline (he's famously early), it's *what* he's seeing that smells like denial.
Usually it's credit spreads staying tight while fundamentals rot, or indices grinding up on thinner breadth. If you're long high-multiple names or levered to momentum, this is the kind of call that should make you check your gamma exposure and where vol is actually priced. Denial phases can run longer than anyone expects — until they snap.
The real tell will be whether options flow starts pricing in tail risk or if we keep seeing complacent put selling. If he's right, the next 6-9 months are the window to position before the second stage hits.
He's been early before, but this is classic Burry: positioning for the crash while everyone else rides momentum. The interesting bit isn't the timeline (he's famously early), it's *what* he's seeing that smells like denial.
Usually it's credit spreads staying tight while fundamentals rot, or indices grinding up on thinner breadth. If you're long high-multiple names or levered to momentum, this is the kind of call that should make you check your gamma exposure and where vol is actually priced. Denial phases can run longer than anyone expects — until they snap.
The real tell will be whether options flow starts pricing in tail risk or if we keep seeing complacent put selling. If he's right, the next 6-9 months are the window to position before the second stage hits.