#美联储10月维持利率概率升至82.3%
Oct. 6 Market Overview:
① Bitcoin is still moving sideways within the 83,500–86,500 range.
Although the daily MACD is showing divergence, the market is still in an uptrend and is currently trading above the 10-day moving average on the daily chart!
② Trading plan: Don’t tinker with long-term spot holdings or let short-term price swings affect you. For short-term trades, take profits in batches at this level. For futures, place your stop-losses: look to short around 87,000 with a stop near 88,000, and look to go long near 84,000. Manage your profits as you see fit—there’s no room for greed in a sideways market. Before the Fed announces its rate decision, many market participants will stay on the sidelines, so we shouldn’t be too aggressive or go all in either!
③ News: The CPI inflation data is due on October 14. If CPI comes in well, an October pause in rate hikes is all but certain. The crypto market often moves ahead of the news. The rate decision is due at 2:00 a.m. on October 29, followed by Powell’s press conference at 2:30 a.m.
The federal funds rate is currently 3.75%–4.00%. After the last surprisingly weak nonfarm payrolls report, the market expects the Fed to stand pat in October (around an 80% probability). The key will be the wording of the statement and Powell’s remarks—whether they lean dovish or hawkish matters more than the rate decision itself. If the Fed pauses rate hikes and strikes a dovish tone (signaling that tightening is nearing its end), Treasury yields and the U.S. dollar could fall, liquidity expectations could improve, and BTC could rebound, potentially retesting the 87,000 or even 90,000 level.
If the Fed unexpectedly hikes rates, or signals another hike in December, risk-free rates will keep rising and funds may flow out of risk assets, putting pressure on BTC and potentially sending it back to test support at 82,500 or 80,000.
Even if the outcome matches expectations (no rate hike), Powell’s wording at the press conference could still trigger sharp volatility. Historically, we often see a “rise first, then fall” move or a sharp reversal, and leveraged positions are most likely to get liquidated at times like these!
Oct. 6 Market Overview:
① Bitcoin is still moving sideways within the 83,500–86,500 range.
Although the daily MACD is showing divergence, the market is still in an uptrend and is currently trading above the 10-day moving average on the daily chart!
② Trading plan: Don’t tinker with long-term spot holdings or let short-term price swings affect you. For short-term trades, take profits in batches at this level. For futures, place your stop-losses: look to short around 87,000 with a stop near 88,000, and look to go long near 84,000. Manage your profits as you see fit—there’s no room for greed in a sideways market. Before the Fed announces its rate decision, many market participants will stay on the sidelines, so we shouldn’t be too aggressive or go all in either!
③ News: The CPI inflation data is due on October 14. If CPI comes in well, an October pause in rate hikes is all but certain. The crypto market often moves ahead of the news. The rate decision is due at 2:00 a.m. on October 29, followed by Powell’s press conference at 2:30 a.m.
The federal funds rate is currently 3.75%–4.00%. After the last surprisingly weak nonfarm payrolls report, the market expects the Fed to stand pat in October (around an 80% probability). The key will be the wording of the statement and Powell’s remarks—whether they lean dovish or hawkish matters more than the rate decision itself. If the Fed pauses rate hikes and strikes a dovish tone (signaling that tightening is nearing its end), Treasury yields and the U.S. dollar could fall, liquidity expectations could improve, and BTC could rebound, potentially retesting the 87,000 or even 90,000 level.
If the Fed unexpectedly hikes rates, or signals another hike in December, risk-free rates will keep rising and funds may flow out of risk assets, putting pressure on BTC and potentially sending it back to test support at 82,500 or 80,000.
Even if the outcome matches expectations (no rate hike), Powell’s wording at the press conference could still trigger sharp volatility. Historically, we often see a “rise first, then fall” move or a sharp reversal, and leveraged positions are most likely to get liquidated at times like these!