The fact that it hasn’t fallen further only means this round of rate hikes has been absorbed; it doesn’t mean there’s room to go higher. Treasury yields and the dollar are still weighing on it, and there are more people calling for a bull market than there are buyers. That’s not a healthy mix.
The Fed has already raised rates to 3.75%–4.00% in September, and Japan is raising rates too. Bitcoin hasn’t broken down because weaker employment data lowered the odds of another hike in October, so risk assets are initially trading on the assumption that rates won’t rise again. That’s one less tightening step, not an injection of liquidity. The 10-year Treasury yield is still around 5.25%, and the dollar index is about 102.5, near an 18-month high. Bitcoin has been rejected three times at $87,000 and is now at $85,000–$86,000, still 32% below last October’s peak of about $126,000. The Nasdaq is making new highs, but crypto isn’t following, suggesting this rally is being driven by AI stocks, not a spillover of liquidity.
Confidence comes from the idea that “bad news is out, and the price didn’t fall.” The rate hike came through, payrolls came in far below expectations, and both gold and crypto surged before giving back their gains—a classic sign that the news has already been traded. Spot Bitcoin ETFs saw another net outflow of about $90 million on Monday, while Ethereum ETFs have seen outflows for five straight days. The Fear and Greed Index is at 73, still in greed territory. When prices don’t fall much and the index remains in greed territory, long positions can keep piling up. $194 million was liquidated over the past 24 hours, including $114 million in long positions.
So the reasons it can’t go higher are stronger than the reasons it might. To close above $87,000, the dollar would need to retreat, or yields would need to fall from 5.25%. Neither has happened yet. A December rate hike is still on the table, and if Japan hikes again, carry trades will come under pressure once more. When lots of people are calling it a bull market, it usually means positions are already built and they’re waiting for latecomers to buy in. If the rally is real, first watch whether $84,000 holds. If it doesn’t, the confidence built up so far could quickly evaporate. #币安推出BinanceIntelligence #Strive斥资1.69亿美元增持2000枚BTC #BTC #永续
The Fed has already raised rates to 3.75%–4.00% in September, and Japan is raising rates too. Bitcoin hasn’t broken down because weaker employment data lowered the odds of another hike in October, so risk assets are initially trading on the assumption that rates won’t rise again. That’s one less tightening step, not an injection of liquidity. The 10-year Treasury yield is still around 5.25%, and the dollar index is about 102.5, near an 18-month high. Bitcoin has been rejected three times at $87,000 and is now at $85,000–$86,000, still 32% below last October’s peak of about $126,000. The Nasdaq is making new highs, but crypto isn’t following, suggesting this rally is being driven by AI stocks, not a spillover of liquidity.
Confidence comes from the idea that “bad news is out, and the price didn’t fall.” The rate hike came through, payrolls came in far below expectations, and both gold and crypto surged before giving back their gains—a classic sign that the news has already been traded. Spot Bitcoin ETFs saw another net outflow of about $90 million on Monday, while Ethereum ETFs have seen outflows for five straight days. The Fear and Greed Index is at 73, still in greed territory. When prices don’t fall much and the index remains in greed territory, long positions can keep piling up. $194 million was liquidated over the past 24 hours, including $114 million in long positions.
So the reasons it can’t go higher are stronger than the reasons it might. To close above $87,000, the dollar would need to retreat, or yields would need to fall from 5.25%. Neither has happened yet. A December rate hike is still on the table, and if Japan hikes again, carry trades will come under pressure once more. When lots of people are calling it a bull market, it usually means positions are already built and they’re waiting for latecomers to buy in. If the rally is real, first watch whether $84,000 holds. If it doesn’t, the confidence built up so far could quickly evaporate. #币安推出BinanceIntelligence #Strive斥资1.69亿美元增持2000枚BTC #BTC #永续
