Long-term holders have been selling for 7 straight weeks. Last week, they sold 73,400 Bitcoin in one go, yet the price keeps climbing 🦖
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The latest data from on-chain analyst Axel Adler shows that the Long-Term Holder Position Change metric turned negative on August 17. By September 28, it had widened to a reduction of 73,400 BTC. Just a week earlier, the figure was only 1,100—meaning it grew more than 60-fold in seven days.
Looking at the bigger picture, this metric stayed positive from February through early August this year. In May, long-term holders even added 1.2 million BTC in a single month. The last time they sold on a large scale was November 2025, when they offloaded around 1.07 million BTC in one go. So this latest round of selling is less than a tenth of that 🐋
We also have data on whether they’re selling at a profit. The Long-Term Holder SOPR rose to 1.24 on September 21, its highest level since January, and was still at 1.18 on September 28. That means the coins moved during this period realized an 18% profit relative to their cost basis. In other words, this isn’t panic selling—it’s orderly profit-taking.
What I care more about isn’t how much they’re selling, but whether buyers can absorb it. The price is still rising, which suggests that fresh demand is soaking up this supply. On-chain analysts have set out a specific warning signal: if selling climbs back to the hundreds-of-thousands-of-coins range while the price stops rising, that would indicate the market’s ability to absorb the supply is starting to fail ⚠️
Put another way, long-term holders selling isn’t, by itself, a signal that the market has peaked. It’s the combination of their selling pressure and weakening demand that matters. We haven’t seen both at the same time yet, so this looks more like a changing of hands than an exit.
Do you think these 7 weeks represent normal turnover, or are smart money investors getting out early? Share your take in the comments.
Tap the profile picture to watch the livestream.
Every day, we bring you the latest Bitcoin on-chain data—not just what’s happening in the news, but also the logic and opportunities behind it 👀🚀
🔎 进群看完整分析
The latest data from on-chain analyst Axel Adler shows that the Long-Term Holder Position Change metric turned negative on August 17. By September 28, it had widened to a reduction of 73,400 BTC. Just a week earlier, the figure was only 1,100—meaning it grew more than 60-fold in seven days.
Looking at the bigger picture, this metric stayed positive from February through early August this year. In May, long-term holders even added 1.2 million BTC in a single month. The last time they sold on a large scale was November 2025, when they offloaded around 1.07 million BTC in one go. So this latest round of selling is less than a tenth of that 🐋
We also have data on whether they’re selling at a profit. The Long-Term Holder SOPR rose to 1.24 on September 21, its highest level since January, and was still at 1.18 on September 28. That means the coins moved during this period realized an 18% profit relative to their cost basis. In other words, this isn’t panic selling—it’s orderly profit-taking.
What I care more about isn’t how much they’re selling, but whether buyers can absorb it. The price is still rising, which suggests that fresh demand is soaking up this supply. On-chain analysts have set out a specific warning signal: if selling climbs back to the hundreds-of-thousands-of-coins range while the price stops rising, that would indicate the market’s ability to absorb the supply is starting to fail ⚠️
Put another way, long-term holders selling isn’t, by itself, a signal that the market has peaked. It’s the combination of their selling pressure and weakening demand that matters. We haven’t seen both at the same time yet, so this looks more like a changing of hands than an exit.
Do you think these 7 weeks represent normal turnover, or are smart money investors getting out early? Share your take in the comments.
Tap the profile picture to watch the livestream.
Every day, we bring you the latest Bitcoin on-chain data—not just what’s happening in the news, but also the logic and opportunities behind it 👀🚀
