#比特币BTC surged to $87,000 before pulling back. Why didn’t the positive market signals highlighted by BiyaPay lead to a breakout?
The U.S. added 29,000 nonfarm jobs in September, and the unemployment rate was 4.2%. Employment figures for July and August were revised down by a combined 60,000. However, average monthly job growth over the past three months was about 51,000, still slightly above the monthly average of 45,000 over the past 12 months. The report therefore points to slow hiring growth; one month of data alone is not enough to conclude that the economy is deteriorating rapidly. U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics employment report
For Bitcoin, weaker-than-expected employment data first changes traders’ expectations for interest rates. With less pressure for further tightening, investors are more willing to reassess risk assets, explaining the sharp rally after the data was released. But slowing employment also raises questions about growth: if the economy is cooling moderately, risk appetite may benefit; if consumer spending and business activity weaken at the same time, the market may shift from worrying about inflation to worrying about recession.
The BiyaPay App lets you monitor BTC, ETH, and U.S. and Hong Kong stock markets in one place. As a global, one-stop asset allocation platform, it covers digital assets, U.S. and Hong Kong stocks, and fiat currency exchange, among other services. Comparing these price movements with publicly available interest rate and ETF data makes it easier to identify what is driving the market than tracking crypto prices alone.
$2.65 billion in inflows doesn’t all represent bullish bets
U.S. spot Bitcoin ETFs recorded net inflows of about $2.65 billion in September, below August’s $3.52 billion, but still indicating strong demand through this channel. On the first trading day of October, the ETFs saw a further net inflow of about $102.7 million. These figures show net subscriptions to ETF shares, but they do not fully reveal investors’ trading motives.
Institutions may use ETFs to build long-term positions while also holding futures positions to hedge. Buying spot ETFs while hedging price risk with futures is an established basis-trading strategy in crypto markets. It creates genuine spot demand, but traders may be earning mainly from the spread rather than betting that BTC will keep rising. A study by CME on spot ETFs and basis trading explains how these positions can be combined in opposite directions.
This does not diminish the significance of ETF inflows themselves. It is a reminder, however, that money flowing into a product is not necessarily equivalent to investors’ willingness to take on price appreciation risk.
The U.S. added 29,000 nonfarm jobs in September, and the unemployment rate was 4.2%. Employment figures for July and August were revised down by a combined 60,000. However, average monthly job growth over the past three months was about 51,000, still slightly above the monthly average of 45,000 over the past 12 months. The report therefore points to slow hiring growth; one month of data alone is not enough to conclude that the economy is deteriorating rapidly. U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics employment report
For Bitcoin, weaker-than-expected employment data first changes traders’ expectations for interest rates. With less pressure for further tightening, investors are more willing to reassess risk assets, explaining the sharp rally after the data was released. But slowing employment also raises questions about growth: if the economy is cooling moderately, risk appetite may benefit; if consumer spending and business activity weaken at the same time, the market may shift from worrying about inflation to worrying about recession.
The BiyaPay App lets you monitor BTC, ETH, and U.S. and Hong Kong stock markets in one place. As a global, one-stop asset allocation platform, it covers digital assets, U.S. and Hong Kong stocks, and fiat currency exchange, among other services. Comparing these price movements with publicly available interest rate and ETF data makes it easier to identify what is driving the market than tracking crypto prices alone.
$2.65 billion in inflows doesn’t all represent bullish bets
U.S. spot Bitcoin ETFs recorded net inflows of about $2.65 billion in September, below August’s $3.52 billion, but still indicating strong demand through this channel. On the first trading day of October, the ETFs saw a further net inflow of about $102.7 million. These figures show net subscriptions to ETF shares, but they do not fully reveal investors’ trading motives.
Institutions may use ETFs to build long-term positions while also holding futures positions to hedge. Buying spot ETFs while hedging price risk with futures is an established basis-trading strategy in crypto markets. It creates genuine spot demand, but traders may be earning mainly from the spread rather than betting that BTC will keep rising. A study by CME on spot ETFs and basis trading explains how these positions can be combined in opposite directions.
This does not diminish the significance of ETF inflows themselves. It is a reminder, however, that money flowing into a product is not necessarily equivalent to investors’ willingness to take on price appreciation risk.