Applies to: spot holdings with a reference cost of 0.76 USDT · subscribers · October 6, 2026
Data as of: October 6, 2026, 12:37:24 Beijing time. FIL is currently around 1.1696 USDT, with a reference cost of 0.76 USDT and an unrealized gain of approximately 53.9%, before fees.
Recover your initial investment first, then use a small position to participate in the upgrade rally
My view is that low-cost spot holdings have entered the profit-taking phase. Sell 30% now, then continue taking profits in two price ranges: 1.18–1.23 and 1.28–1.33. Plan to have sold at least 70% in total by 48 hours before the upgrade and at least 90% by 24 hours before. Exit according to this timeline even if the price does not reach the higher targets.
This plan is intended for members whose holding cost is close to 0.76 USDT, who use no leverage, and who prioritize protecting profits. All percentages are calculated based on the original amount held when adopting the plan. Positions with a higher cost basis need to be recalculated, and the plan should not be applied mechanically.
The value of the mainnet upgrade must be validated by actual demand
The catalyst is NV29 Solstice. The currently merged mainnet configuration is scheduled to take effect at approximately 21:00 Beijing time on October 19, 2026. Delays or issues remain possible until the official release and node upgrades are complete. A testnet launch and a mainnet launch are different stages and should not be conflated.
The upgrade will phase out the existing FIL+ allocation mechanism and adjust block rewards, linking part of the rewards to paid on-chain services. This could lead the market to reassess FIL's economic model, but a successful network upgrade does not directly translate into user growth, revenue growth, or a sustained rise in the token price.
In particular, avoid assuming that deflation will happen immediately: the current proposal does not allocate any burn share generated by this reward split during the first launch quarter; such a share will only be generated later under the rules. This does not mean there are no other burns across the network. It means the new mechanism introduced by this upgrade will not deliver its full economic effects immediately on launch day.
Therefore, I prefer to reduce the position by trading the expectations ahead of the upgrade. The final 10% retained by members is only for participating in a continuation of the trend after the price has confirmed it; it is not a bet made in advance that long-term demand will inevitably materialize.
Multiple time frames point to the same conclusion: 1.20–1.23 is the key area in the near term
Resistance levels are assessed using spot candles from the same exchange. Historical highs are only potential selling-pressure zones and do not guarantee a reversal upon being reached. Do not treat round-number levels, extended targets, and established historical resistance as equivalent evidence.
| Time frame | Price area / USDT | Assessment and implications for selling |
| --- | --- | --- |
| 1-hour to 4-hour | 1.18–1.205 | After recently reaching 1.2042, the price pulled back. This is the first near-term resistance and a suitable area to start taking profits. |
| Daily | 1.20–1.23 | Overlaps with the September 26 high of 1.2286; this is the main area for reducing the position before a breakout. |
| Weekly | 1.28–1.33 | Near the May high of 1.3222; watch for historical selling pressure after a breakout above the recent high. |
| Extended swing target | 1.45–1.55 | For taking profits in stages on a small position. Historical resistance here is less well substantiated, so this is not a target that must be reached. |
| Monthly | 1.62–1.69 | Near this year's January high of 1.689. This is a distant area to watch, not a reason to delay taking profits. |
The trend is strong, but trading volume has not yet confirmed an easy breakout
Based on completed daily candles, the 5-day, 10-day, and 20-day average prices are approximately 1.073, 1.081, and 1.015 USDT, respectively. The price is above all of them, indicating that the short- and medium-term trends remain supported. However, volume on the most recent completed trading day was about 1.15 times the average volume of the preceding 20 days: there is some volume support, but not enough to dismiss the selling pressure at the previous high.
I define breakout confirmation as follows: the daily candle closes above 1.23, then at least one completed 4-hour candle retests the 1.20–1.23 area and closes back above 1.23. A brief intraday move above the previous high does not meet this condition. Until confirmation, take profits according to the predetermined sell orders.
For near-term protection, focus on 1.13; the intermediate support area is around 1.075, and the final line of defense is 1.04. These levels come from the connecting area and approximate starting point of this rally. The 1.13 and 1.075 levels are execution thresholds chosen to protect profits, not precise support levels guaranteed to hold.
Broader risks still include weakness in the overall market and event expectations being priced in too early. This plan has not verified real-time funding rates, open interest, or the order book, so it does not claim to have confirmed accumulation by major players or concentrated holdings, nor does it raise price targets on that basis.
Take profits in stages: sell first, then wait for higher prices
The table below uses an original holding of 1,000 FIL as an example. Scale the actual quantities proportionally. Calculate the first batch using the actual execution price at the time; subsequent limit orders can be placed in advance. Do not reinvest the proceeds in this event-driven position.
| Batch | Execution price / USDT | Percentage and example for 1,000 tokens |
| --- | --- | --- |
| First batch | Currently around 1.17 | Sell 30%, or 300 tokens; take profits first rather than waiting for another peak. |
| Second batch | 1.19 / 1.22 | Sell 15% / 10%, or 150 / 100 tokens, respectively. |
| Third batch | 1.29 / 1.32 | Sell 10% / 5%, or 100 / 50 tokens, respectively. |
| Fourth batch | 1.47 / 1.52 | Sell 10% at each price, or 100 tokens each; if these prices are not reached, exit according to the time-based plan. |
| Final batch | Conditional exit after the upgrade | Keep no more than 10%, or 100 tokens, and exit using protective conditions. |
After taking profits on 70%, has the initial investment been recovered?
Assuming the first batch sells at 1.17, the second at 1.19 and 1.22, and the third at 1.29 and 1.32, the original cost of a 1,000-token position is 760 USDT. Selling the first 700 tokens would recover approximately 846.5 USDT, before fees. This covers the original investment, with 300 tokens remaining. The remaining position still has market value, so recovering the initial investment is no reason to stop protecting it.
This is one possible execution scenario, not a guarantee of returns. If the higher limit sell orders are not filled, time-based exits or downside protection will execute at different prices, and the actual amount recovered will need to be recalculated.
Use the actual cumulative filled quantity
When using this plan, record the original quantity Q. A target of selling a cumulative 70% means the filled sell quantity reaches 0.70×Q. If 55% has already been sold, only another 15% needs to be sold—not 70% of the remaining position. Partial fills also count toward the cumulative quantity.
Price-based profit-taking, time-based position reductions, and downside protection may trigger at the same time. Apply whichever condition is met first; the cumulative percentage can only increase. Before making additional sales, check the quantity already filled and any unfilled sell orders. After reducing the position, cancel or reduce the corresponding orders to avoid selling twice. A confirmed breakout does not reverse profits already taken.
Downside protection takes priority over waiting for target prices
| Trigger condition | Action to take |
| --- | --- |
| One 4-hour candle closes below 1.13, and the next candle still fails to recover 1.13 | Sell at least 60% cumulatively; immediately sell enough to reach that amount. |
| Any completed 4-hour candle closes below 1.075 | Sell at least 90% cumulatively; cancel the plan to wait for higher targets. |
| The actual price touches 1.04 | Exit the entire remaining position without waiting for a candle close confirmation. |
Use completed 4-hour candles from the same exchange to avoid mixing time zones or using data from candles that have not closed. A stop-market order can be set at 1.04; the trigger price is not the execution price, and slippage may occur during a sharp drop. If you cannot monitor the market continuously, you can use price-triggered orders instead of waiting for a candle close, but be prepared for them to trigger on brief price fluctuations.
Proactively reduce the position before the upgrade
Based on the current upgrade schedule of approximately 21:00 on October 19, take profits on at least 70% cumulatively by 21:00 on October 17, and at least 90% cumulatively by 21:00 on October 18. If the upgrade actually happens earlier, move the exit times forward accordingly; if it is delayed, do not automatically push back the already-set position-reduction times.
If higher limit sell orders are still unfilled by the deadline, cancel the relevant orders and sell enough at the prevailing market price to meet the cumulative reduction target. If the delay is accompanied by substantive technical issues, cancel all extended targets and exit the position that has not yet been sold. Do not continue increasing exposure on the grounds that “the positive catalyst is still in play.”
How to exit the final 10%
When the upgrade takes effect, keep no more than 10% only if the price meets the breakout confirmation criteria described above, remains above 1.23, and the upgrade has no substantive issues. If these conditions are not met, exit the final batch.
After retaining the position, exit if a completed 4-hour candle closes back below 1.20. Also record the highest post-upgrade execution price H and set a trailing take-profit trigger at H×0.92, adjusting it upward only. Execute whichever of the two exit conditions triggers first. Even if the price continues to rise, do not buy back the tokens already sold.
The focus of this plan is to turn existing paper profits into realized gains while using a limited position to participate if the event-driven trend continues. Price targets, protective thresholds, and time-based exits must all be followed together. Keeping only the higher targets while removing protective conditions changes the risk profile of the entire plan.
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