🟡 Fed: 82.3% chance of no change in October — but this isn’t the end of tight policy
According to CME FedWatch, the market puts the probability that the Fed will leave rates unchanged at its October meeting at 82.3%.
But here’s the important nuance: 82.3% is not a Fed forecast; it’s a market estimate based on futures. And a pause in October does not automatically mean a shift to looser policy.
📌 What matters for $BTC and risk assets:
- A Fed pause could ease short-term pressure on markets;
- The tone of Powell’s statement and his assessment of inflation will remain important;
- U.S. Treasury yields and the dollar could significantly influence $BTC ’s reaction;
- The market still allows for the possibility of another rate hike late in the year.
So the outlook for the crypto market isn’t as simple as “pause = BTC rally.” What matters more is whether expectations for the Fed’s subsequent meetings are changing.
For $BTC , the key may not be the October decision itself, but the signal about what the Fed plans to do next.
#Fed #fomc #BTC #crypto #CMEFedWatch #Ethereum #FedOctoberHoldOdds82.3%
According to CME FedWatch, the market puts the probability that the Fed will leave rates unchanged at its October meeting at 82.3%.
But here’s the important nuance: 82.3% is not a Fed forecast; it’s a market estimate based on futures. And a pause in October does not automatically mean a shift to looser policy.
📌 What matters for $BTC and risk assets:
- A Fed pause could ease short-term pressure on markets;
- The tone of Powell’s statement and his assessment of inflation will remain important;
- U.S. Treasury yields and the dollar could significantly influence $BTC ’s reaction;
- The market still allows for the possibility of another rate hike late in the year.
So the outlook for the crypto market isn’t as simple as “pause = BTC rally.” What matters more is whether expectations for the Fed’s subsequent meetings are changing.
For $BTC , the key may not be the October decision itself, but the signal about what the Fed plans to do next.
#Fed #fomc #BTC #crypto #CMEFedWatch #Ethereum #FedOctoberHoldOdds82.3%
