We're 78 months into this expansion—6th longest streak since 1854.
Long-term average? 49 months. Median? 38 months.
We're way past normal.
The 2009-2020 run lasted 128 months. We're not there yet, but we're getting up there.
Here's the pattern: 5 of the most recent expansions are among the 7 longest ever recorded.
What's different now? Unconventional Fed policy. Massive deficits. AI investment boom.
These forces are stretching business cycles longer than historical norms.
The data is clear: this economy has staying power.
But remember—longer cycles don't mean no cycles. They just mean the next turn matters more.
Long-term average? 49 months. Median? 38 months.
We're way past normal.
The 2009-2020 run lasted 128 months. We're not there yet, but we're getting up there.
Here's the pattern: 5 of the most recent expansions are among the 7 longest ever recorded.
What's different now? Unconventional Fed policy. Massive deficits. AI investment boom.
These forces are stretching business cycles longer than historical norms.
The data is clear: this economy has staying power.
But remember—longer cycles don't mean no cycles. They just mean the next turn matters more.
