I just came across a breaking story from about an hour ago. Trump posted about oil prices, saying the reason gasoline prices are rising is no longer the Strait of Hormuz, since record amounts of oil are now being produced almost every day. He pointed the finger at refineries: Russian refineries are being blown up by Ukraine, while U.S. refineries in blue states like California are being shut down by what he called “stupid Democrats.” He even spelled it “Dumocrats”—he’s going all out.
Here’s my take.
The most significant thing here is that he’s shifted the oil-price issue from the supply side to the processing side. The Strait isn’t to blame, and crude oil production is at record levels, so the remaining variable is refining. Refining capacity can’t just be conjured up with talk; building new plants and expanding capacity takes time. By his own account, there’s no quick fix for the short-term pressure on oil prices. That’s a hard constraint, not something that can be waved away with a statement.
The rhetoric is also unmistakably combative. Blaming the opposing party for oil prices is an attempt to assign responsibility in advance. From here on, every move in oil prices will bring this issue back into the conversation.
For crypto, this story isn’t directly bearish or bullish, but it sits in the macro chain: if oil prices don’t come down, inflation expectations will be hard to ease—and inflation expectations are a variable that assets like $BTC can’t ignore when they’re being priced. So don’t dismiss this as a joke. Watching refining capacity and the actual direction of oil prices will be more useful than watching what he says.
The news only broke within the past hour, so I’m recording my assessment here and will wait for follow-up data to confirm it.
#行业动态 #宏观经济 #加密货币
Crypto markets are extremely volatile. Please assess the risks for yourself. The above is just my personal observation and does not constitute investment advice.
Here’s my take.
The most significant thing here is that he’s shifted the oil-price issue from the supply side to the processing side. The Strait isn’t to blame, and crude oil production is at record levels, so the remaining variable is refining. Refining capacity can’t just be conjured up with talk; building new plants and expanding capacity takes time. By his own account, there’s no quick fix for the short-term pressure on oil prices. That’s a hard constraint, not something that can be waved away with a statement.
The rhetoric is also unmistakably combative. Blaming the opposing party for oil prices is an attempt to assign responsibility in advance. From here on, every move in oil prices will bring this issue back into the conversation.
For crypto, this story isn’t directly bearish or bullish, but it sits in the macro chain: if oil prices don’t come down, inflation expectations will be hard to ease—and inflation expectations are a variable that assets like $BTC can’t ignore when they’re being priced. So don’t dismiss this as a joke. Watching refining capacity and the actual direction of oil prices will be more useful than watching what he says.
The news only broke within the past hour, so I’m recording my assessment here and will wait for follow-up data to confirm it.
#行业动态 #宏观经济 #加密货币
Crypto markets are extremely volatile. Please assess the risks for yourself. The above is just my personal observation and does not constitute investment advice.