#美联储10月维持利率概率升至82.3%
Bitcoin rose 43% in three months, but hit a 5% wall 🦖
⚡ 有大动静群里说
This was Bitcoin’s best third quarter since 2017, but research firm Delphi Digital poured cold water on the rally in its latest weekly report: the real obstacle isn’t the crypto market itself—it’s U.S. Treasury yields, which have climbed above 5%, their highest level in decades.
Here’s what they said, translated: “When a government bond can offer a risk-free return of more than 5%, every risk asset has to work twice as hard to justify the investment.” 💥
Here are the numbers: Bitcoin briefly surged to $87,000 last week, gaining more than 35% since mid-August and 43% over the third quarter as a whole. Meanwhile, the U.S. Treasury repeatedly increased the scale of its long-term bond buybacks, taking them all the way up to $6 billion just to support liquidity in the bond market. The money hasn’t disappeared—it’s just found a more comfortable place to go.
The real turning point came last Friday. The U.S. added just 29,000 jobs in September, far below the market’s expectation of 80,000, according to the Bureau of Labor Statistics. That sent the market’s odds of a rate hike in October tumbling from above 75% a week earlier to around 24% (CME FedWatch). New York Fed President Williams also said: “Given what we’ve already done in September, there’s no need to rush.”
My take: In the short term, this gives Bitcoin some breathing room. Cooling rate expectations give risk assets a chance to catch their breath. But in the medium term, its real rival isn’t the Fed—it’s that 5% Treasury yield. As long as “5% risk-free” remains on offer, every Bitcoin rally has to prove it’s “worth more than Treasuries.” The “debasement trade”—the idea that government debt and money printing will dilute the dollar—makes sense in theory, but it takes time, not a sudden breakout.
Two things are worth watching: whether the Fed really holds rates steady at its October meeting, and whether long-term Treasury yields can fall back below 5%. A change in either could shift Bitcoin’s direction. 📉
Let’s talk in the comments: If risk-free returns really are 5%, how much of your portfolio would you still allocate to Bitcoin?
Tap the profile picture to watch the livestream.
Every day, we bring you the latest in crypto—not just what’s happening, but the logic and opportunities behind it 👀🚀
Bitcoin rose 43% in three months, but hit a 5% wall 🦖
⚡ 有大动静群里说
This was Bitcoin’s best third quarter since 2017, but research firm Delphi Digital poured cold water on the rally in its latest weekly report: the real obstacle isn’t the crypto market itself—it’s U.S. Treasury yields, which have climbed above 5%, their highest level in decades.
Here’s what they said, translated: “When a government bond can offer a risk-free return of more than 5%, every risk asset has to work twice as hard to justify the investment.” 💥
Here are the numbers: Bitcoin briefly surged to $87,000 last week, gaining more than 35% since mid-August and 43% over the third quarter as a whole. Meanwhile, the U.S. Treasury repeatedly increased the scale of its long-term bond buybacks, taking them all the way up to $6 billion just to support liquidity in the bond market. The money hasn’t disappeared—it’s just found a more comfortable place to go.
The real turning point came last Friday. The U.S. added just 29,000 jobs in September, far below the market’s expectation of 80,000, according to the Bureau of Labor Statistics. That sent the market’s odds of a rate hike in October tumbling from above 75% a week earlier to around 24% (CME FedWatch). New York Fed President Williams also said: “Given what we’ve already done in September, there’s no need to rush.”
My take: In the short term, this gives Bitcoin some breathing room. Cooling rate expectations give risk assets a chance to catch their breath. But in the medium term, its real rival isn’t the Fed—it’s that 5% Treasury yield. As long as “5% risk-free” remains on offer, every Bitcoin rally has to prove it’s “worth more than Treasuries.” The “debasement trade”—the idea that government debt and money printing will dilute the dollar—makes sense in theory, but it takes time, not a sudden breakout.
Two things are worth watching: whether the Fed really holds rates steady at its October meeting, and whether long-term Treasury yields can fall back below 5%. A change in either could shift Bitcoin’s direction. 📉
Let’s talk in the comments: If risk-free returns really are 5%, how much of your portfolio would you still allocate to Bitcoin?
Tap the profile picture to watch the livestream.
Every day, we bring you the latest in crypto—not just what’s happening, but the logic and opportunities behind it 👀🚀
