⚡ Baseball in October: Championship odds hit the blockchain first
Baseball is back in October. The MLB playoffs have reached the Division Series: eight teams in four matchups, best-of-five. Tonight, the White Sox visit the Guardians, and the Yankees visit the Rays. Both teams swept their way into the final eight, 2–0.
On the field, it’s nine innings. The money starts moving first on another scoreboard. This is a first. Major League Baseball has given prediction markets an official seat at the table. In March, MLB named Polymarket the league’s official prediction market partner, signing a multiyear deal. Starting in August, the Yankees signed a separate deal with Polymarket, while Kalshi signed on five clubs in one go: the Braves, Red Sox, Dodgers, Padres, and Giants. Behind the stadium’s outfield walls, there’s now an on-chain market.
The World Series champion contract is no niche trade. According to Covers, by September 29, World Series contracts on Kalshi and Polymarket had traded more than $140 million, making them the biggest sports contracts by trading volume this year on US-licensed platforms. Polymarket’s championship market alone topped $40 million. On Kalshi, the Dodgers alone had 1.4 million contracts traded, making theirs the deepest single-team market of this year’s playoffs.
The odds are right there. According to Kalshi: Dodgers 30%, Yankees and Brewers 17% each, Padres 11%, Braves 10%, Rays 9%, Guardians 7%, White Sox 5%.
The Division Series odds are more finely split. The Dodgers have a 68% chance of winning this round. But in the regular season, the Braves beat the Dodgers 5–1, and in the 2021 Division Series, it was the Braves who sent the Dodgers home.
The real story is what comes next. The Dodgers have won back-to-back titles, in 2024 and 2025. The last team to win three straight was the Yankees, from 1998 to 2000—that was 26 years ago. For a potential three-peat that would make franchise history, the market is giving them just 30%.
As I write this, four BTC price feeds put it between $86,140 and $86,167, up about 1% in 24 hours. ETH is around $2,715.
Baseball’s money is starting to move to a new ledger. The game goes nine innings on the field; on-chain, settlement happens almost at the same time.
$BTC $ETH
#中本聪国际社区Baoluo币商资本 #加密货币 #MLB
Baseball is back in October. The MLB playoffs have reached the Division Series: eight teams in four matchups, best-of-five. Tonight, the White Sox visit the Guardians, and the Yankees visit the Rays. Both teams swept their way into the final eight, 2–0.
On the field, it’s nine innings. The money starts moving first on another scoreboard. This is a first. Major League Baseball has given prediction markets an official seat at the table. In March, MLB named Polymarket the league’s official prediction market partner, signing a multiyear deal. Starting in August, the Yankees signed a separate deal with Polymarket, while Kalshi signed on five clubs in one go: the Braves, Red Sox, Dodgers, Padres, and Giants. Behind the stadium’s outfield walls, there’s now an on-chain market.
The World Series champion contract is no niche trade. According to Covers, by September 29, World Series contracts on Kalshi and Polymarket had traded more than $140 million, making them the biggest sports contracts by trading volume this year on US-licensed platforms. Polymarket’s championship market alone topped $40 million. On Kalshi, the Dodgers alone had 1.4 million contracts traded, making theirs the deepest single-team market of this year’s playoffs.
The odds are right there. According to Kalshi: Dodgers 30%, Yankees and Brewers 17% each, Padres 11%, Braves 10%, Rays 9%, Guardians 7%, White Sox 5%.
The Division Series odds are more finely split. The Dodgers have a 68% chance of winning this round. But in the regular season, the Braves beat the Dodgers 5–1, and in the 2021 Division Series, it was the Braves who sent the Dodgers home.
The real story is what comes next. The Dodgers have won back-to-back titles, in 2024 and 2025. The last team to win three straight was the Yankees, from 1998 to 2000—that was 26 years ago. For a potential three-peat that would make franchise history, the market is giving them just 30%.
As I write this, four BTC price feeds put it between $86,140 and $86,167, up about 1% in 24 hours. ETH is around $2,715.
Baseball’s money is starting to move to a new ledger. The game goes nine innings on the field; on-chain, settlement happens almost at the same time.
$BTC $ETH
#中本聪国际社区Baoluo币商资本 #加密货币 #MLB
