The chart shows silver trading around $60.38 per ounce, with the descending trendline that has been in place particularly since August putting pressure on the price. Following the sharp sell-off at the end of September, the price fell from around $67.5 to the $60 area.
Technically, the most critical level is the Fibonacci level around $60.75. A move below this level signals that selling pressure could persist in the short term. If buyers step in around $60 and the price regains the $60.75–$63 range, a rebound toward the area around 63–64$ , where the descending trendline on the chart is located, could follow. Daily closes above this trendline would significantly strengthen the outlook and could lead to a retest of the 68–70$ area. Conversely, if support at 60$ is decisively lost, the next significant support on the chart is at 54.93$ .
On the macro front, however, the outlook is not entirely negative. After US September employment data came in well below expectations, the likelihood of a Fed rate hike in October declined. The market is currently pricing in the possibility that the Fed will hold rates steady at its October meeting. If this eases pressure on the dollar and Treasury yields, it could be a positive catalyst for silver, which pays no interest. However, inflation remains above the Fed's target and US 10-year Treasury yields remain high, continuing to weigh on precious metals in the short term.
In conclusion, silver is currently at a critical juncture, both technically and macroeconomically. Holding the $60 area could pave the way for a rebound; reclaiming $60.75 would be the first positive signal, while a break above 63–64$ could indicate that the downtrend is weakening. Conversely, if the price remains below 60$ , the 54.93$ area could come into play. Although a supply deficit is supportive over the medium term, the Fed, Treasury yields, and the direction of the dollar will continue to be key drivers of the price in the short term. $XAG #Silver $SILVER #XAGUSD
Technically, the most critical level is the Fibonacci level around $60.75. A move below this level signals that selling pressure could persist in the short term. If buyers step in around $60 and the price regains the $60.75–$63 range, a rebound toward the area around 63–64$ , where the descending trendline on the chart is located, could follow. Daily closes above this trendline would significantly strengthen the outlook and could lead to a retest of the 68–70$ area. Conversely, if support at 60$ is decisively lost, the next significant support on the chart is at 54.93$ .
On the macro front, however, the outlook is not entirely negative. After US September employment data came in well below expectations, the likelihood of a Fed rate hike in October declined. The market is currently pricing in the possibility that the Fed will hold rates steady at its October meeting. If this eases pressure on the dollar and Treasury yields, it could be a positive catalyst for silver, which pays no interest. However, inflation remains above the Fed's target and US 10-year Treasury yields remain high, continuing to weigh on precious metals in the short term.
In conclusion, silver is currently at a critical juncture, both technically and macroeconomically. Holding the $60 area could pave the way for a rebound; reclaiming $60.75 would be the first positive signal, while a break above 63–64$ could indicate that the downtrend is weakening. Conversely, if the price remains below 60$ , the 54.93$ area could come into play. Although a supply deficit is supportive over the medium term, the Fed, Treasury yields, and the direction of the dollar will continue to be key drivers of the price in the short term. $XAG #Silver $SILVER #XAGUSD