ORCA surge and then retreat; $ORCA is bearish in the short term, targeting 1.918
Brothers, $ORCA has fooled people again this round.
On the 15-minute timeframe: the recent four candles’ highs are 2.014, 2.011, 2.043, and 2.034. After it surged to 2.043, it was knocked down immediately; the last candle closed at 2.009, with a clear upper wick. On the 4-hour chart it’s still slightly green (+1%), but that was from the earlier run—not because it’s strong right now.
More importantly, volume: over the last four hours, the trading volume in the latter two hours shrank by 44.71% compared to the first two hours. When it surged, it didn’t hold with volume; but the pullback came down quite cleanly. Isn’t that exactly a typical “surge then retreat” pattern?
The daily data is also showing a DROP_BACK: it dropped 5.11%, indicating there’s definitely heavy selling pressure overhead.
My bearish plan is simple:
- Resistance at 2.043; don’t talk about a reversal until it can hold above it
- Key level at 1.98; a break below means acceleration
- Support at 1.918, which is also my first target
For execution: around 2.0 is a comfortable area for the shorts. Set the stop-loss above 2.043. If the price reclaims and holds above 2.043, I’ll admit I’m wrong and withdraw—no shorting in the short term.
Don’t chase longs. This kind of volume-shrinking rebound is basically handing opportunities to the shorts. $ORCA first looks to 1.918; once it breaks, we’ll talk about the next step.
(What’s above is just my personal trading thought process and is not investment advice. The market has risk—manage your own position size.)
Brothers, $ORCA has fooled people again this round.
On the 15-minute timeframe: the recent four candles’ highs are 2.014, 2.011, 2.043, and 2.034. After it surged to 2.043, it was knocked down immediately; the last candle closed at 2.009, with a clear upper wick. On the 4-hour chart it’s still slightly green (+1%), but that was from the earlier run—not because it’s strong right now.
More importantly, volume: over the last four hours, the trading volume in the latter two hours shrank by 44.71% compared to the first two hours. When it surged, it didn’t hold with volume; but the pullback came down quite cleanly. Isn’t that exactly a typical “surge then retreat” pattern?
The daily data is also showing a DROP_BACK: it dropped 5.11%, indicating there’s definitely heavy selling pressure overhead.
My bearish plan is simple:
- Resistance at 2.043; don’t talk about a reversal until it can hold above it
- Key level at 1.98; a break below means acceleration
- Support at 1.918, which is also my first target
For execution: around 2.0 is a comfortable area for the shorts. Set the stop-loss above 2.043. If the price reclaims and holds above 2.043, I’ll admit I’m wrong and withdraw—no shorting in the short term.
Don’t chase longs. This kind of volume-shrinking rebound is basically handing opportunities to the shorts. $ORCA first looks to 1.918; once it breaks, we’ll talk about the next step.
(What’s above is just my personal trading thought process and is not investment advice. The market has risk—manage your own position size.)
