🚨 Chances of a Federal Reserve rate hike in October have now collapsed to ~17% — the market is effectively pricing in a pause.
The reason is simple:
September jobs data came in at only +29K, while the unemployment rate rose to 4.2%. That was weak enough to sharply reduce expectations for another rate increase at the October meeting.
The economic chain now looks like this:
Weak jobs → lower odds of a rate hike → less pressure on yields → a better setup for risk assets.
And this shows up in:
$QQQ — the tech sector gets relief if rate pressure eases.
$BTC — liquidity-sensitive assets may benefit from a softer Fed path.
$XAU — gold gets support if real yields fall and the dollar calms down.
$TLT — bonds become more attractive if expectations for tightening fade.
But don’t confuse a pause with a change in direction.
Reuters says a December rate hike is still strongly on the table if inflation remains sticky.
So the deal now is:
October pause = increasingly priced in.
December = still the real battleground.
Please follow up
$QQQ $BTC $XAUT $TLT
#fedoctoberratehikeoddsfallto17%
The reason is simple:
September jobs data came in at only +29K, while the unemployment rate rose to 4.2%. That was weak enough to sharply reduce expectations for another rate increase at the October meeting.
The economic chain now looks like this:
Weak jobs → lower odds of a rate hike → less pressure on yields → a better setup for risk assets.
And this shows up in:
$QQQ — the tech sector gets relief if rate pressure eases.
$BTC — liquidity-sensitive assets may benefit from a softer Fed path.
$XAU — gold gets support if real yields fall and the dollar calms down.
$TLT — bonds become more attractive if expectations for tightening fade.
But don’t confuse a pause with a change in direction.
Reuters says a December rate hike is still strongly on the table if inflation remains sticky.
So the deal now is:
October pause = increasingly priced in.
December = still the real battleground.
Please follow up
$QQQ $BTC $XAUT $TLT
#fedoctoberratehikeoddsfallto17%
