I’ve recently started streaming on the Binance Square. Going forward, unless something special comes up, I’ll be streaming at: 🗓️ Monday to Friday 🕘 21:00–23:00 (evening)
The stream mainly covers what I normally do every day: 📈 Watching the Nasdaq 100 (NQ) spot market 📝 Pre-market plans, key levels, and waiting for setups 🎯 Entry/exit ideas and Price Action
If the NQ session ends early, we’ll also take a look at BTC, ETH, and the more active cryptocurrencies that evening.
My livestream might be a bit different from the lively chatrooms (welcome to the introvert’s livestream, haha).
Most of the time, I’ll just play some light music while I normally monitor the market. If there’s something worth talking about, I’ll share it. If there isn’t a suitable setup, we’ll wait together—I won’t force trades just for the sake of streaming (●'◡'●) (Trading is actually something that requires a lot of patience and emotional control.)
The stream is mainly in Chinese—English is also welcome.
If I ever have to cancel a stream last minute, or if the timing changes, I’ll let everyone know in advance on the Square. Monday to Friday, at 9 PM.
If you want to see how I trade in my everyday life, come to the livestream.🐱
Greed Index 68, $BTC — should you chase or run? I went through the data from the past four years 👀
When people see “the market is greedy,” some want to chase the rally, while others prepare to short. But the same 68 can lead to completely different outcomes.
💡 I looked at the dates from October 4, 2022 to October 3, 2026 when Alternative.me was exactly 68, and there were 19 of them. Using the BTC daily close on those dates as the reference: ▸ 7 days later, 10 rises and 9 falls; ▸ 30 days later, also 10 rises and 9 falls.
Note that these 19 dates include consecutive or adjacent samples, and the follow-up observation windows also overlap. They cannot be treated as 19 independent trades, and 10/19 should not be packaged as a long-only win rate. The sample is small, and fees are not deducted.
Looking at a few examples makes the difference clearer: 1️⃣ On April 14, 2023, the index was 68. BTC closed at about $30,500 that day, fell about 10.5% 7 days later, and about 11.7% 30 days later. Sentiment was hot, but price still pulled back.
2️⃣ On November 7, 2023, the index was also 68. BTC closed at about $35,400, rose about 0.3% 7 days later, and about 22.2% 30 days later. If you assume a top just because greed appears, you might get out too early.
3️⃣ On July 26, 2024, it was 68 again. BTC closed at about $67,900, fell about 9.6% 7 days later, and about 5.3% 30 days later. The same reading did not replicate the previous rally.
4️⃣ On June 17, 2025, the index was 68. BTC closed at about $104,600, rose about 1.4% 7 days later, and about 14.0% 30 days later. Greed can also accompany trend continuation.
These comparisons remind me: one number cannot capture the trend, buying pressure, and market environment at that moment. And Alternative.me’s calculation itself already includes price movement, momentum, and volume. When price rises, it can push the index higher; then using the index to prove “price will keep rising” can easily circle back to the starting point.
I’d look one step further: did this 68 rise gradually from fear, or did it retreat from an even greedier level? Is price holding after a breakout, or repeatedly spiking and fading?
Tonight, on Sunday, I’ll also keep an eye on the tape. If it breaks out and then retests and holds, I’ll keep watching for continuation; if it spikes and falls back into the range, I’ll lower my expectations of chasing. Especially in leveraged trading, don’t use an emotion gauge as a reason to add size. 🙈
10.03 - 10.04|What should the broader market watch next?
The weekend is here—actually it’s a better time to slow down the pace a bit.
After BTC’s earlier rapid sweep of the market, it has now returned to trading in a tight range around 84,600. The momentum on the short term (1H–4H) isn’t particularly strong, but the daily structure has not shown clear signs of being broken. So for now, I won’t decide that the trend has reversed just because of a few candlesticks.
Next, I’ll focus on two key areas:
Around 84,000 is the first short-term support/consolidation point. If the weekend pullback can dip here and hold firm, there’s still room for the price to probe higher.
Up above, first watch 85,000–85,500. Whether price can break through and hold there will directly affect the next step in the trading rhythm.
If 84K is lost, don’t try to catch it. Then focus below on the 82,000–83,000 zone. This area is also a key support that some analysts have been repeatedly paying attention to recently.
As for ETH, it’s currently around 2,670, and overall it’s still ranging around 2,700.
Here I’ll treat 2,700 as the short-term boundary. What truly needs to be broken is the 2,750–2,800 region. Recently the market has been paying a lot of attention to this level—multiple tests have happened, but an effective breakout hasn’t formed yet.
Down below, the focus is 2,620–2,650. If there’s a clear show of support after a pullback, there should still be an opportunity to do a swing trade over the weekend.
So my weekend plan is very simple:
For BTC: look for support around 84K, and a breakout around 85.5K. For ETH: look for support around 2.65K, and a breakout around 2.8K.
Until it’s confirmed, don’t chase and don’t rush to guess the top.
Weekend liquidity tends to change easily. I’d rather do a little less than disrupt the rhythm for the sake of a few candlesticks.
Wait for the levels, wait for confirmation—then leave the rest to the market.
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Greed Index 68, $BTC — should you chase or run? I went through the data from the past four years 👀
When people see “the market is greedy,” some want to chase the rally, while others prepare to short. But the same 68 can lead to completely different outcomes.
💡 I looked at the dates from October 4, 2022 to October 3, 2026 when Alternative.me was exactly 68, and there were 19 of them. Using the BTC daily close on those dates as the reference: ▸ 7 days later, 10 rises and 9 falls; ▸ 30 days later, also 10 rises and 9 falls.
Note that these 19 dates include consecutive or adjacent samples, and the follow-up observation windows also overlap. They cannot be treated as 19 independent trades, and 10/19 should not be packaged as a long-only win rate. The sample is small, and fees are not deducted.
Looking at a few examples makes the difference clearer: 1️⃣ On April 14, 2023, the index was 68. BTC closed at about $30,500 that day, fell about 10.5% 7 days later, and about 11.7% 30 days later. Sentiment was hot, but price still pulled back.
2️⃣ On November 7, 2023, the index was also 68. BTC closed at about $35,400, rose about 0.3% 7 days later, and about 22.2% 30 days later. If you assume a top just because greed appears, you might get out too early.
3️⃣ On July 26, 2024, it was 68 again. BTC closed at about $67,900, fell about 9.6% 7 days later, and about 5.3% 30 days later. The same reading did not replicate the previous rally.
4️⃣ On June 17, 2025, the index was 68. BTC closed at about $104,600, rose about 1.4% 7 days later, and about 14.0% 30 days later. Greed can also accompany trend continuation.
These comparisons remind me: one number cannot capture the trend, buying pressure, and market environment at that moment. And Alternative.me’s calculation itself already includes price movement, momentum, and volume. When price rises, it can push the index higher; then using the index to prove “price will keep rising” can easily circle back to the starting point.
I’d look one step further: did this 68 rise gradually from fear, or did it retreat from an even greedier level? Is price holding after a breakout, or repeatedly spiking and fading?
Tonight, on Sunday, I’ll also keep an eye on the tape. If it breaks out and then retests and holds, I’ll keep watching for continuation; if it spikes and falls back into the range, I’ll lower my expectations of chasing. Especially in leveraged trading, don’t use an emotion gauge as a reason to add size. 🙈
Greed Index 68, $BTC — should you chase or run? I went through the data from the past four years 👀
When people see “the market is greedy,” some want to chase the rally, while others prepare to short. But the same 68 can lead to completely different outcomes.
💡 I looked at the dates from October 4, 2022 to October 3, 2026 when Alternative.me was exactly 68, and there were 19 of them. Using the BTC daily close on those dates as the reference: ▸ 7 days later, 10 rises and 9 falls; ▸ 30 days later, also 10 rises and 9 falls.
Note that these 19 dates include consecutive or adjacent samples, and the follow-up observation windows also overlap. They cannot be treated as 19 independent trades, and 10/19 should not be packaged as a long-only win rate. The sample is small, and fees are not deducted.
Looking at a few examples makes the difference clearer: 1️⃣ On April 14, 2023, the index was 68. BTC closed at about $30,500 that day, fell about 10.5% 7 days later, and about 11.7% 30 days later. Sentiment was hot, but price still pulled back.
2️⃣ On November 7, 2023, the index was also 68. BTC closed at about $35,400, rose about 0.3% 7 days later, and about 22.2% 30 days later. If you assume a top just because greed appears, you might get out too early.
3️⃣ On July 26, 2024, it was 68 again. BTC closed at about $67,900, fell about 9.6% 7 days later, and about 5.3% 30 days later. The same reading did not replicate the previous rally.
4️⃣ On June 17, 2025, the index was 68. BTC closed at about $104,600, rose about 1.4% 7 days later, and about 14.0% 30 days later. Greed can also accompany trend continuation.
These comparisons remind me: one number cannot capture the trend, buying pressure, and market environment at that moment. And Alternative.me’s calculation itself already includes price movement, momentum, and volume. When price rises, it can push the index higher; then using the index to prove “price will keep rising” can easily circle back to the starting point.
I’d look one step further: did this 68 rise gradually from fear, or did it retreat from an even greedier level? Is price holding after a breakout, or repeatedly spiking and fading?
Tonight, on Sunday, I’ll also keep an eye on the tape. If it breaks out and then retests and holds, I’ll keep watching for continuation; if it spikes and falls back into the range, I’ll lower my expectations of chasing. Especially in leveraged trading, don’t use an emotion gauge as a reason to add size. 🙈
When you already know the ending, the process matters When you don’t know the ending, the ending matters most When you don’t care about the ending, the present matters most
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