[October 4th late-night recap | Dual observation of geopolitical risk and on-chain capital]

The biggest variable tonight is still in the Middle East: a second oil tanker through the Strait of Hormuz was attacked (AI score 82/A grade, long signal). The U.S. Secretary of Defense said the blockade would hold, no matter what; the Houthis attacked Saudi Aramco facilities; and Iran said it is currently reviewing a new proposal from the U.S. Oil price fluctuations and their linkage with $BTC as a safe-haven are worth watching closely.

On-chain ETH longs are active: Abraxas Capital deposited about 20,016 ETH (worth $53.9 million) into the Aave lending protocol; a new address initiated its first position—1420 ETH (about $3.82 million, cost roughly $2,692) withdrawn from OKX and deposited into Lido for staking; and AEVO’s monthly buyback and burn累计 of 78 million tokens to date, accounting for 7.8% of the total supply.

Clear split between hot and cold in the ecosystem: Blast, an ETH-based L2, announced it is shutting down (operating costs can’t keep up with revenue), while $SOL Q3 non-voting transaction volume hit a record 14.2 billion, up 45% month-over-month; on the Tron chain, the total stablecoin supply reached $94 billion, with market share breaking 30% for the first time.

Late-night sentiment is somewhat cautious, but on-chain capital is quietly positioning.

NFA | DYOR

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