The futures aren’t reopening until Sunday 6:00 PM (ET) — Monday hasn’t opened yet
Meanwhile, I’ll scan the news from the weekend first
Let’s sort out the clues for the open
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The tone set at Friday’s close is very important, because Monday’s early session will most likely follow that pricing
The September Non-Farm Payrolls added only 29,000 jobs, versus expectations of around 90,000
That’s a big gap
Unemployment rate: 4.2%
The market reaction is:
The odds of a rate hike in October were pushed sharply lower. The guidance moved from nearly 70% previously down to about 24%
But the stock market didn’t fall
Dow +0.49%, S&P +0.73%, Nasdaq +1.19%, and the Nasdaq 100 closed at a new high
The logic is simple:
Weak employment → lower odds of rate hikes → growth stocks benefit
A textbook “weak NFP” trade
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On Friday, I kept three lines/threads for individual stocks. On Monday at the open, I’ll first watch these
Nvidia closed at 233.95, and during the day it touched 237.88, marking a new intraday high in its market debut/new high since May
Semiconductors overall were on the stronger side, but memory was going the other way
Toshiba said it plans to expand hard-disk production, and Seagate and Western Digital each fell by about 10%
Expansion news is a negative for memory stocks—once capacity ramps up, prices get pressured down
Tesla +4.65%
Q3 deliveries were 486,532 units, well above the forecast of 464,000
SpaceX also rose 7.35%
Nike was one of the worst performers in the Dow, down about 3.6%
The issue is demand from China, plus a full-year revenue outlook guidance cut
━━━━━
On Monday daytime, there’s only one thing that can truly change the pricing: the 9:00 AM 9月 ISM Services PMI for September. The expectation is around 55.1, prior value 55.4
The headline number doesn’t matter
What matters are the sub-components inside
If new orders are still expanding, and the prices component is still high, then Friday’s “pause rate hikes” trade logic will be reversed
But if the employment sub-component also turns weaker like the Non-Farm payrolls, then growth stocks and small/mid caps will likely keep running
In plain terms: there are two storylines. Before the ISM prints, it’s all guessing
At 9:45 there’s also the S&P Global Services PMI final estimate. There are no major earnings reports that day
China’s National Day holiday runs until Oct 7, so liquidity in Asia-Pacific is thin
The Fed minutes are on Wednesday, and have nothing to do with Monday
On Monday, just watch that one number—not investment advice. DYOR
$TESL.ETF
Meanwhile, I’ll scan the news from the weekend first
Let’s sort out the clues for the open
//
The tone set at Friday’s close is very important, because Monday’s early session will most likely follow that pricing
The September Non-Farm Payrolls added only 29,000 jobs, versus expectations of around 90,000
That’s a big gap
Unemployment rate: 4.2%
The market reaction is:
The odds of a rate hike in October were pushed sharply lower. The guidance moved from nearly 70% previously down to about 24%
But the stock market didn’t fall
Dow +0.49%, S&P +0.73%, Nasdaq +1.19%, and the Nasdaq 100 closed at a new high
The logic is simple:
Weak employment → lower odds of rate hikes → growth stocks benefit
A textbook “weak NFP” trade
//
On Friday, I kept three lines/threads for individual stocks. On Monday at the open, I’ll first watch these
Nvidia closed at 233.95, and during the day it touched 237.88, marking a new intraday high in its market debut/new high since May
Semiconductors overall were on the stronger side, but memory was going the other way
Toshiba said it plans to expand hard-disk production, and Seagate and Western Digital each fell by about 10%
Expansion news is a negative for memory stocks—once capacity ramps up, prices get pressured down
Tesla +4.65%
Q3 deliveries were 486,532 units, well above the forecast of 464,000
SpaceX also rose 7.35%
Nike was one of the worst performers in the Dow, down about 3.6%
The issue is demand from China, plus a full-year revenue outlook guidance cut
━━━━━
On Monday daytime, there’s only one thing that can truly change the pricing: the 9:00 AM 9月 ISM Services PMI for September. The expectation is around 55.1, prior value 55.4
The headline number doesn’t matter
What matters are the sub-components inside
If new orders are still expanding, and the prices component is still high, then Friday’s “pause rate hikes” trade logic will be reversed
But if the employment sub-component also turns weaker like the Non-Farm payrolls, then growth stocks and small/mid caps will likely keep running
In plain terms: there are two storylines. Before the ISM prints, it’s all guessing
At 9:45 there’s also the S&P Global Services PMI final estimate. There are no major earnings reports that day
China’s National Day holiday runs until Oct 7, so liquidity in Asia-Pacific is thin
The Fed minutes are on Wednesday, and have nothing to do with Monday
On Monday, just watch that one number—not investment advice. DYOR
$TESL.ETF