The White House red carpet is just wrapping up, and Predict’s midterm election odds have already tallied the books.
“Democrats sweep” is now 64%, with the Senate staying in Republican hands, and the House giving Democrats 30%.
A Republican sweep is down to just 6%. This position has traded about 10.9 million USD.
Almost nobody is betting on the House anymore—Kalshi and Polymarket are both above 92%.
The only thing still being priced is the Senate. The meeting on September 24 was more dramatic than the results.
Trump made an exception to go to the airport to receive the guests. A B-2 and an F-22 formation flew overhead, there was a state banquet, and even the giant panda—he said their relationship has never been this good.
But the odds aren’t factoring that in. The trade truce is only extended by another two months, through January 10, 2027—right to cover the November 3 voting day.
The list of tariff reductions is $30 billion each; AI will be discussed first, and the hard disagreements are still ahead.
So that 64% isn’t trading friendship.
It’s trading a political reality: midterm elections for the governing party usually mean losses—and this summit pushed the trade conflict beyond election day.
“Democrats sweep” is now 64%, with the Senate staying in Republican hands, and the House giving Democrats 30%.
A Republican sweep is down to just 6%. This position has traded about 10.9 million USD.
Almost nobody is betting on the House anymore—Kalshi and Polymarket are both above 92%.
The only thing still being priced is the Senate. The meeting on September 24 was more dramatic than the results.
Trump made an exception to go to the airport to receive the guests. A B-2 and an F-22 formation flew overhead, there was a state banquet, and even the giant panda—he said their relationship has never been this good.
But the odds aren’t factoring that in. The trade truce is only extended by another two months, through January 10, 2027—right to cover the November 3 voting day.
The list of tariff reductions is $30 billion each; AI will be discussed first, and the hard disagreements are still ahead.
So that 64% isn’t trading friendship.
It’s trading a political reality: midterm elections for the governing party usually mean losses—and this summit pushed the trade conflict beyond election day.