On Friday, $BTC was trading weak nonfarm payrolls and a pause in interest rate hikes. On Monday, it faces another bill: a missing 5 million barrels of oil.
OPEC+ has just in principle agreed to keep its November production targets unchanged. But seven core member countries had actual daily output of only 25 million barrels in August—about 5 million barrels less than in the two pre-war months. Gulf members’ export volumes over recent months have also been only 60% to 80% of normal levels.
This is the part most easily hidden behind the headline:
Keeping the target unchanged doesn’t mean supply hasn’t declined. The Middle East conflict has already caused multiple “production increases,” but most of it remains on paper.
Even more troublesome, Iran today said it will not reopen the Strait of Hormuz until seven conditions are met. Before the war, about one-fifth of the world’s oil and liquefied natural gas passed through it.
If oil prices keep rising on Monday, the interest-rate tailwind from weak employment could be eaten away by inflation expectations.
What BTC bought on Friday was a pause in interest rate hikes—not an exemption from oil prices.
#BTC #OPEC
OPEC+ has just in principle agreed to keep its November production targets unchanged. But seven core member countries had actual daily output of only 25 million barrels in August—about 5 million barrels less than in the two pre-war months. Gulf members’ export volumes over recent months have also been only 60% to 80% of normal levels.
This is the part most easily hidden behind the headline:
Keeping the target unchanged doesn’t mean supply hasn’t declined. The Middle East conflict has already caused multiple “production increases,” but most of it remains on paper.
Even more troublesome, Iran today said it will not reopen the Strait of Hormuz until seven conditions are met. Before the war, about one-fifth of the world’s oil and liquefied natural gas passed through it.
If oil prices keep rising on Monday, the interest-rate tailwind from weak employment could be eaten away by inflation expectations.
What BTC bought on Friday was a pause in interest rate hikes—not an exemption from oil prices.
#BTC #OPEC
