After Binance “tumbled,” many people ended up blaming Binance.
The projects Binance and YZi invested in have indeed profited more than they’ve lost.
The logic is simple: traffic, listings, and a niche/ecosystem position—these are real money.
That was what Aster did. But investing isn’t a guarantee.
When a project catches a tailwind, changes course, has its valuation pushed to a billion first, and then leaves right after the airdrop ends, in the end it still depends on whether it can stay and generate revenue.
Opinion dying here doesn’t mean that endorsing it was inherently false.
I personally didn’t go heavy on it back then.
Last year there were lots of projects that required invitations; from what I remember, few of them ended well.
A good project should want people to come in and play—not turn the tickets into scarce items.
The scheme is crystal clear: users buy expectations, and the project sells expectations.
If invitations keep people out and the experience is hard to use, then this deal was wrong from the start.
Predict early on wasn’t this kind of approach.
Polymarket lets users come in and do a trade, then directly gives them 200 points.
Low threshold, clear actions—people are brought in, not begged for invitation codes.
When Opinion cooled off, the token-launch expectations for Polymarket also basically disappeared.
As long as the prediction market is still there and token-launch expectations still exist, only Predict remains in that category.
People who were “farming” move battlefields not because they suddenly fell in love with it, but because other traps have already been filled.
It’s still not as good as Polymarket now, for two reasons:
One is inertia—nobody will move just because of a post, when you’re already using a familiar, convenient dApp.
One is that this track has hurt people: the one with the strongest token-launch expectations stopped, and then the next few ended up cutting people like dead dogs.
As a later entrant, people will be far more cautious about Predict.
I still see Predict as an epic-level project.
Not because it’s perfect—there are plenty of reasons to say it’s good, and just as many reasons to say it’s not. Those are all just excuses people place to justify their orders.
What I’m looking at is the track. Prediction markets are one of the few places that can still grow into a platform. The real chance to “get the meat” always comes down to one or two names in a great track.
If new prediction markets come later, I’ll join too—adding based on my understanding, not based on hype.
@predictdotfun
The projects Binance and YZi invested in have indeed profited more than they’ve lost.
The logic is simple: traffic, listings, and a niche/ecosystem position—these are real money.
That was what Aster did. But investing isn’t a guarantee.
When a project catches a tailwind, changes course, has its valuation pushed to a billion first, and then leaves right after the airdrop ends, in the end it still depends on whether it can stay and generate revenue.
Opinion dying here doesn’t mean that endorsing it was inherently false.
I personally didn’t go heavy on it back then.
Last year there were lots of projects that required invitations; from what I remember, few of them ended well.
A good project should want people to come in and play—not turn the tickets into scarce items.
The scheme is crystal clear: users buy expectations, and the project sells expectations.
If invitations keep people out and the experience is hard to use, then this deal was wrong from the start.
Predict early on wasn’t this kind of approach.
Polymarket lets users come in and do a trade, then directly gives them 200 points.
Low threshold, clear actions—people are brought in, not begged for invitation codes.
When Opinion cooled off, the token-launch expectations for Polymarket also basically disappeared.
As long as the prediction market is still there and token-launch expectations still exist, only Predict remains in that category.
People who were “farming” move battlefields not because they suddenly fell in love with it, but because other traps have already been filled.
It’s still not as good as Polymarket now, for two reasons:
One is inertia—nobody will move just because of a post, when you’re already using a familiar, convenient dApp.
One is that this track has hurt people: the one with the strongest token-launch expectations stopped, and then the next few ended up cutting people like dead dogs.
As a later entrant, people will be far more cautious about Predict.
I still see Predict as an epic-level project.
Not because it’s perfect—there are plenty of reasons to say it’s good, and just as many reasons to say it’s not. Those are all just excuses people place to justify their orders.
What I’m looking at is the track. Prediction markets are one of the few places that can still grow into a platform. The real chance to “get the meat” always comes down to one or two names in a great track.
If new prediction markets come later, I’ll join too—adding based on my understanding, not based on hype.
@predictdotfun