Interest rate futures pricing for the October rate hike quickly fell to around 17%. In response, US Treasury yields on the short end dropped, and the US dollar weakened under pressure. Gold and the technology sector of US stocks were among the first to show a rebound, and this marginal easing of macro liquidity was likewise transmitted to the crypto market. $BTC seized the momentum to kick off a repair rally.
The core feature of the cross-asset linkage in this round of valuation improvement is that it is mainly driven by the crowding out of the rate-hike premium. Falling Treasury yields relieve the high pressure on the risk-free rate. Gold’s inflation-hedging and defensive attributes strengthen, and the Nasdaq is extremely sensitive to signals of rate-hike pauses or holds. However, what the market is pricing in is only a window in which fewer hikes occur or hikes are delayed—far from entering the stage of a truly released, loose liquidity environment.
Within the crypto arena, $BTC and $ETH follow macro sentiment relatively directly. But whether upside momentum can be opened depends primarily on how resilient spot capital inside the market is in taking the order at key resistance levels. If the upcoming inflation data shows an upside surprise, rate-hike expectations could quickly swing back. This remains a tightening constraint on cross-market long positions.
The core feature of the cross-asset linkage in this round of valuation improvement is that it is mainly driven by the crowding out of the rate-hike premium. Falling Treasury yields relieve the high pressure on the risk-free rate. Gold’s inflation-hedging and defensive attributes strengthen, and the Nasdaq is extremely sensitive to signals of rate-hike pauses or holds. However, what the market is pricing in is only a window in which fewer hikes occur or hikes are delayed—far from entering the stage of a truly released, loose liquidity environment.
Within the crypto arena, $BTC and $ETH follow macro sentiment relatively directly. But whether upside momentum can be opened depends primarily on how resilient spot capital inside the market is in taking the order at key resistance levels. If the upcoming inflation data shows an upside surprise, rate-hike expectations could quickly swing back. This remains a tightening constraint on cross-market long positions.