The Fed and the ECB are set to release their meeting minutes tonight. During the day, people were already watching the 10-year U.S. Treasury yield and complaining that they just can’t seem to push it down. This kind of day is the most annoying for me—most people who gamble on the data end up with nothing good to show for it. The two candlesticks before the release are pure emotion; anyone who takes them seriously gets hit.

Looking back at $ZEC : it was doing great just a couple of days ago, but over the past few days it has clearly lost momentum. Since the Zcash ETF launched in August, this is the first time it has seen net outflows for the week—money is pulling out. That signal alone says more than any piece of good news. Once liquidity tightens, what was piled up earlier starts dropping layer by layer.

Technically, there is some news: the network now has two independent full-node implementations, Zebra and Zakura. It sounds like legitimate progress—but the question is whether the market is buying it. With volume shrinking this much—down to only around 40% of usual—there’s no drive either upward or downward.

My own stance: I won’t move until the sideways consolidation is fully done. I’ll wait for the minutes to come out and for the capital flows to turn before talking. Rushing in now is no different from guessing big or small with your eyes covered. $ZEC