🚨 OCTOBER FED HIKE ODDS JUST COLLAPSED TO ~17% — THE MARKET IS PRICING A PAUSE.
The reason is simple:
September payrolls came in at just +29K, while unemployment rose to 4.2%. That was weak enough to sharply reduce expectations for another Fed hike at the October meeting.
The macro chain now looks like this:
Weak jobs → lower hike odds → less pressure on yields → better setup for risk assets.
That matters for:
$QQQ — tech gets relief if rate pressure cools.
$BTC — liquidity-sensitive assets can benefit from a softer Fed path.
$XAU — gold gets support if real yields and the dollar ease.
$TLT — bonds become more attractive if tightening expectations fade.
But don’t confuse a pause with a pivot.
Reuters says a December hike is still very much on the table if inflation stays sticky.
So the trade is now:
October pause = increasingly priced in.
December = still the real battleground.
$QQQ $BTC $XAU $TLT
#fedoctoberratehikeoddsfallto17%
The reason is simple:
September payrolls came in at just +29K, while unemployment rose to 4.2%. That was weak enough to sharply reduce expectations for another Fed hike at the October meeting.
The macro chain now looks like this:
Weak jobs → lower hike odds → less pressure on yields → better setup for risk assets.
That matters for:
$QQQ — tech gets relief if rate pressure cools.
$BTC — liquidity-sensitive assets can benefit from a softer Fed path.
$XAU — gold gets support if real yields and the dollar ease.
$TLT — bonds become more attractive if tightening expectations fade.
But don’t confuse a pause with a pivot.
Reuters says a December hike is still very much on the table if inflation stays sticky.
So the trade is now:
October pause = increasingly priced in.
December = still the real battleground.
$QQQ $BTC $XAU $TLT
#fedoctoberratehikeoddsfallto17%
