#fedoctoberratehikeoddsfallto17%
😂 The Fed just went from “rate hikes?” to “maybe later.”
But 17% does NOT mean the Fed has pivoted. 👀
🚨 Here’s what the market is really pricing:
📊 17% — probability of a hike in October
📊 70–75% → 17% — collapse in the chances of a hike
📊 3.75–4.00% — the current Fed rate
📊 >75% — probability of a hike in December
And here’s the part that many people miss.
The big repricing didn’t start with the NFP.
Williams and Jefferson signaled there was no rush. Softer PCE data reduced the odds.
Then the September jobs report gave the final push:
29K jobs created versus about 84–95K expected.
So the market didn’t suddenly decide the Fed is done.
It simply pushed the expected hike further out on the calendar.
👀 October may be off the table.
December is still very much alive.
And this distinction matters for crypto.
Because “fewer hikes” isn’t the same as “easier liquidity.”
🧠 Square insight: The Fed didn’t cancel the hike. The market just moved the meeting.
So… does October become a pause—or just a delay until December?
#FederalReserve #Fed #Macro
$BTC
$AIN
$SPORTFUN
😂 The Fed just went from “rate hikes?” to “maybe later.”
But 17% does NOT mean the Fed has pivoted. 👀
🚨 Here’s what the market is really pricing:
📊 17% — probability of a hike in October
📊 70–75% → 17% — collapse in the chances of a hike
📊 3.75–4.00% — the current Fed rate
📊 >75% — probability of a hike in December
And here’s the part that many people miss.
The big repricing didn’t start with the NFP.
Williams and Jefferson signaled there was no rush. Softer PCE data reduced the odds.
Then the September jobs report gave the final push:
29K jobs created versus about 84–95K expected.
So the market didn’t suddenly decide the Fed is done.
It simply pushed the expected hike further out on the calendar.
👀 October may be off the table.
December is still very much alive.
And this distinction matters for crypto.
Because “fewer hikes” isn’t the same as “easier liquidity.”
🧠 Square insight: The Fed didn’t cancel the hike. The market just moved the meeting.
So… does October become a pause—or just a delay until December?
#FederalReserve #Fed #Macro
$BTC
$AIN
$SPORTFUN
