₿ BITCOIN — October 4, 2026
📍 Price: ~$84,770–84,800
📈 Week: +0.6% — 3rd week of consecutive growth
⚔️ Trigger: NFP +29K (shock) crushed the odds of a rate hike in October to 17–20%
📊 WHAT’S IMPORTANT
• BTC ETF: week 28.09–02.10 +$82.9M — 3rd straight week of inflows
• IBIT (BlackRock): $292M for the week — inflow leader
• US Senate: the SEC proposed new custody rules for institutions
• FedWatch: October — 17% for a hike, December — 86%
⚖️ LEVELS
🟢 Support: $82,900 → $81,600 → $78,700 (50-week MA)
🔴 Resistance: $87,200 → $88,000 → $96,000
💬 SENTIMENT
Fear & Greed: 65 (“greed”, down from 67). Polymarket: chance of BTC reaching $100k by year-end — 39%. RSI 55, MACD death cross — risk of a retest of the 50-day MA. A break of $87.2k will open the way to $96k; losing $82.9k raises the risk of a move to $78.7k.
⚠️ RISKS
• US 10Y at 5.28% — highest since 2007, weighing on risk assets
• ETF inflows slowed: $82.9M vs $2.39B in the prior week
• $87,200 — key resistance; rejected price multiple times
• Polymarket: 61% of traders don’t believe in $100k by year-end
⚠️ Not financial advice. The crypto market is high risk.
#Bitcoin #BTC #Crypto #MarketAnalysis #ETF #BlackRock #IBIT #SEC #FOMC #Uptober $BTC
📍 Price: ~$84,770–84,800
📈 Week: +0.6% — 3rd week of consecutive growth
⚔️ Trigger: NFP +29K (shock) crushed the odds of a rate hike in October to 17–20%
📊 WHAT’S IMPORTANT
• BTC ETF: week 28.09–02.10 +$82.9M — 3rd straight week of inflows
• IBIT (BlackRock): $292M for the week — inflow leader
• US Senate: the SEC proposed new custody rules for institutions
• FedWatch: October — 17% for a hike, December — 86%
⚖️ LEVELS
🟢 Support: $82,900 → $81,600 → $78,700 (50-week MA)
🔴 Resistance: $87,200 → $88,000 → $96,000
💬 SENTIMENT
Fear & Greed: 65 (“greed”, down from 67). Polymarket: chance of BTC reaching $100k by year-end — 39%. RSI 55, MACD death cross — risk of a retest of the 50-day MA. A break of $87.2k will open the way to $96k; losing $82.9k raises the risk of a move to $78.7k.
⚠️ RISKS
• US 10Y at 5.28% — highest since 2007, weighing on risk assets
• ETF inflows slowed: $82.9M vs $2.39B in the prior week
• $87,200 — key resistance; rejected price multiple times
• Polymarket: 61% of traders don’t believe in $100k by year-end
⚠️ Not financial advice. The crypto market is high risk.
#Bitcoin #BTC #Crypto #MarketAnalysis #ETF #BlackRock #IBIT #SEC #FOMC #Uptober $BTC
